Cabal – Groth

Homeboy Juan Sebastian Cabal takes on recent Newport semifinalist and odds – on favorite Samuel Groth in the first round at Bogota, on hard.

Cabal used to be a decent challenger player on the red dirt but never managed to reach the Top 150 and at just 28 years of age he is now playing only doubles. Cabal has no rankings in singles anymore, played just 8 singles matches in the last 2 years and won 3 of them, but 2 of his wins came in dead rubbers in David Cup against amateur level opposition. His last singles tournament was at Eastbourne, where he was destroyed in the 2nd qualifying round by Blaz Rola. He got a Wildcard to play here at home in Colombia, but his chances to pass the first round look really slim, especially considering that Cabal was never a decent player on hard courts.

I covered Groth a lot in the last week at Newport, I have watched his game closely and I expect the Australian to keep on improving, ending up a perennial Top 50 – Top 70 player for years to come. He lost to Karlovic in the semifinals but was impressive against Mahut, Jaziri and Young, backing up his good results and good tennis on grass this season. The guy has been a long time coming at the top level, but was just not able to find consistency until this year. Groth has a gigantic serve and likes to play at the net, grass is his best surface but hard comes a close second, his game is perfectly suited for these conditions here in Bogota.

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The two have never met before, but a matchup analysis is easy to compile and it reveals a massiva advantage for Groth: the surface suits the Australian much better and the high attitude at Bogota makes the playing conditions faster, which will also help the big-serving, offensive Groth. Also, Cabal is expected to struggle big time with his return after he has played almost exclusively doubles in the last 2 years. Doubles players are notorious poor returners so the odds are that Cabal won’t get any kind of break opportunities against one of the Top 5 servers on tour on a fast surface.

Aside from a massive Groth breakdown, Cabal does not stand a chance today, and it`s  unlikely that a young, hungry and in-form player like Groth will suddenly collapse, especially considering that he has the big serve as a weapon to get him out of trouble. As I said, the special conditions at Bogota (attitude, ball speed) are worth taking into account, will help Groth a lot and he should not have any kind of problems against a doubles player like Cabal, who hates hard courts and was never a good overall tennis player – even in his best days. I reckon Groth will end this in two sets. Keeping serve should be a lock against a poor returner like Cabal, but I also expect Groth to find opportunities on the return, avoiding tiebreaks. He likes to go all in so surely at least 1 time per set he’ll find 2-3 winners on the return, which could get him breaks. Also, Cabal can easily kill himself with unforced errors on his serve, as he has no rhythm playing tennis in singles. Even if the Colombian would manage to reach a tiebreak, big-serving Groth would obviously be the favorite, as he is a specialist in tiebreaks.

The analysis seems to leave no room for anything else than a tip on Groth to win in minimum sets (-1,5 set handicap). Note that 8 of Groth’s last 10 wins came in minimum sets, while 3 of Cabal’s last 4 losses were 0-2. Prediction: Juan Sebastian Cabal – Samuel Groth 3-6 4-6.

Pick: Groth (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.64 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.4
Event date: 15 July