Benneteau – Djokovic

Novak Djokovic has been disappointing so far in the Indian Wells but all in all he is in the quarters and has a solid chance to advance even further, with Benneteau apparently an approachable opponent. However, the frenchman knows he has a fighting chance so he could be very dangerous in this one.

Benneteau did not have the best start of the season for sure, losing 6 of his 10 matches in 2014 and only winning against second tier players like Ebden, Carreno Busta, Kokkinakis and Huta Galung. Nevertheless, Julien raised his game to a whole new level here at Indian Wells, defeating Munoz De La Nava, Tsonga (6-4 6-4!), Thiem and Feliciano Lopez to reach the QF stage. The opposition might not look too impressive with the exception of Tsonga, but Munoz de la Nava and Thiem were playing the tennis of their lives and Lopez is always dangerous when he`s in form. Benneteau is looking pretty good and confident right now on the court and when he`s in form he can produce top 10 tennis for sure.

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Djokovic played two tournaments before IW, quarterfinals at the Australian Open and semis at Dubai, so way below his usual standard of performance. His poor form continued here at Indian Wells where I would say he played his worst tennis in a long, long time. Djokovic won 7-6 6-2 against Hanescu in the 2nd round after being heavily dominated by the modest romanian in the 1st set (5-0 break points, 2 set points), and then went on to lose a set in each of his following two matches against A. Gonzalez (horrible performance) and Cilic (the last two sets against Marin showed glimpses of the old Djokovic). While the serb is still playing top class tennis, his performances are way below his standards right now.

Benneteau, of course, had a hard time against Novak over the course of his career, with the H2H standing at 5-1 for the serbian, who won the last 5 meetings. However, 4 of the 6 meetings were pretty close. The two did not meet since US Open 2012 when Djokovic cruised against the frenchman (6-3 6-2 6-2). Regarding the matchup I`d say Benneteau is in some trouble here as he does not have a solid weapon on which he can count on against the top guys, but when he`s in form his usual all around game is enough to make him competitive.

Djokovic lost a set in 2 of his 3 matches here and he should have lost one against Hanescu too, so looking at odds 7.00 from William Hill for 2-1 for Novak, you have to feel there`s a lot of value on that bet. I expect a motivated, talented and in-form Benneteau to produce his best tennis for a set and if he can do that, he`s hard to counter by any player in the world – so a shaky Djokovic should ‘error’ his way to a lost set. One might say Nole will raise his level in this stage of the tournament, also based on the last two sets against Cilic – it`s possible of course, but he hasn`t done that so far this season – and we`re talking about odds 7.00 here. Nevertheless, Novak should come out a winner in the end do to quality, experience and even fitness. My tip is Djokovic to win 2-1 in sets. Prediction: Julien Benneteau – Novak Djokovic 2-6 6-3 1-6.

Pick: Djokovic 2-1
Odds: 7.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 3
Possible profit: 18
Event date: 15 March