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Despite losing the first leg 2-1, Juventus is still the odds-on favorite to qualify and play the Europa League final in Turin. Of course, Benfica proved to be a resilient opponent and the Portugese have every chance of going trough themselves. Two quality, in-form teams here, this should be a cracker.
The loss in the first leg was the only time in the last 7 matches when Juve failed to win. The Italian side had most of the possession and was a little bit more dangerous in front of goal, but this can be attributed to the fact that they fell behind early in the 2nd minute. Juventus defeated Sassuolo 3-1 on the road on Monday to virtually book the Serie A title and to get a morale boost for today, but that match could have also affected their fitness considering that Conte couldn’t afford to rest any players – however Benfica played 120 minutes of football on Sunday so it shouldn’t be an issue. An encouraging factor for Juve is their home record: 17 wins out of 17 games in the Serie A and only 3 teams held on for a draw in Turin this season: Real Madrid, Galatasaray and Fiorentina.
Benfica could hardly have a better season and play any better at the moment. They are on course to win all competitions they took part in (the league is already won) and have won 8 of their last 9 games, conceding only 2 goals. On Sunday Benfica finished 0-0 with Porto in regular time in the League Cup but won the trophy at penalties despite playing with 10 men since the 32nd minute. Not much else to say about the visitors, they are a dominant force in European football right now (similar to Juve), their form is amazing, their defense is rock solid and surely they stand a good chance of an upset here in Turin.
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Team news & lineups
Vidal is the only question mark for Juventus today and he will probably start on the bench. Benfica will miss Gaitan, Silvio, Fejsa and Gomes.
Juventus: Buffon – Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini – Lichtsteiner, Pogba, Pirlo, Marchisio, Asamoah – Llorente, Tevez
Benfica: Moraes – Pereira, Garay, Luisao, Siqueira – Markovic, Amorim, Perez, Sulejmani – Rodrigo, Cardozo
It’s hard to bet against Benfica this season, but I think the portugese side will have to concede qualification today in Turin. Juventus proved to be the (arguably) superior side even in Portugal, despite losing, and at home the Old Lady is twice as intimidating than on the road. It won’t be easy for Juventus but they should eventualy come out on top and qualify for the final which will be played on their own stadium. I`m picking the simple win here, as Benfica would not push for a draw if the score is 2-1 or 3-2. Expect home court advantage to be the difference maker. My tip is Juventus to win. The odds aren`t great but they are fair. Prediction: Juventus – Benfica 2-0.
Pick: Juventus
Odds: 1.61 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.49
Event date: 1 May
