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Juventus Torino hosts Real Madrid in the first Champions League semifinal, first leg.
Juventus won the Serie A title for the 4th time in a row last week and enter with clash with great morale … also conseidering the last two games won over Fiorentina and Sampdoria. However there is a feeling that Juve is just not good enough to play at this level. They had huge problems against Monaco in the quarters and a very solid case can me made that they did not deserve to qualify … won at home because of an undeserved penalty and were horrible in Monaco. Also the biggest game they had in serie A recently, vs. rivals Torino, was lost 3 rounds ago. Pogba and Caceres are the two key absentees for Juventus today.
Juventus lineup: Buffon – Lichtsteiner, Bonucci, Barzagli, Chiellini, Evra – Pirlo, Vidal, Marchisio – Tevez, Llorente
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Despite having to deal with injury problems in the last month, Real booked qualification over rivals Atletico and recorded 7 consecutive wins in La Liga. They caught form maybe a bit too late for La Liga, where Barcelona has 4 points in form … but just at the right time for Champions League. Real defeated Sevilla 3-2 on the road over the weekend … a place where even Barcelona lost points. Visitors scored at least 3 goals in 6 of the last 7 La Liga games (27 in total, an average of almost 4 per game). Chicharito is playing great and Ronaldo scored a hattrick over Sevilla, so the fact that Benzema will still miss for Real is not a big handicap … Modric is also out but Bale and Marcelo come back.
Real Madrid lineup: Casillas – Carvajal, Varane, Pepe, Marcelo – Kroos, Ramos, James – Bale, Chicharito, Ronaldo
It will not be easy to break the Juventus defense, but looking at Real’s recent goalscoring record it is hard seeing them not to score today … and on the other hand, with Sergio Ramos expected back into a defensive midfielder role, Juventus will have a hard time to create chances … especially since they are expected to start with a superdefensive lineup (basically 5-3-1-1), like they did vs. Monaco. I can see Real Madrid holding most of the possession, not allowing Juve opportunities and finding the needed goal(s) … for sure they do not want another goalless draw, a result that put them under a lot of pressure in the reverse leg with Atletico in the quarters.
Look for Real Madrid to win and my tip is Real to cover the +0 asian handicap … a bet that is as safe as it gets IMO, because Juve does not seem to have the strength to compete at this level and they should not even be here … a statement that I am making with all due respect, but you can’t argue that they had an easy draw in the quarters and even vs. Monaco they probably did not deserve to qualify. Correct score prediction: Juventus – Real Madrid 0-2.
Pick: Real Madrid (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.20
Event date: 5 May
