Juventus – Real Madrid

Juventus and Real Madrid will square off in the Champions League final, set to be played at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

The Italians had a truly magnificent season, dominating domestically as they always do, but also affirming themselves as one of the world’s best teams on the European stage. Juventus passed a couple of difficult tests with flying colours, knocking out Barcelona in the quarters (3-0 aggregate) and the dangerous Monaco in the semis (4-1 aggregate). Juve ended the domestic season with a 2-1 win at Bologna last weekend, despite a few of their top players.

Real Madrid didn`t afford the luxury to rest players last weekend, as their 2-0 win over Malaga saw them lift the La Liga title. Los Blancos have been in excellent form under Zidane this year, but unlike Juventus they do seem to have a weakness: their defense. The Malaga win was just the 5th clean sheet in the last 25 matches for Real Madrid.

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Team news & lineups:

Juventus can field the best lineup here, as they only miss Pjaca. Real Madrid has questionmarks over the fitness of Carvajal and Bale. Both should be ready to start, but Bale might be kept on the bench anyway.

Juventus: Buffon – Bonucci, Barzagli, Chiellini – Alves, Pjanic, Khedira, Sandro – Mandzukic, Higuain, Dybala

Real Madrid: Navas – Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo – Kroos, Casemiro, Modric – Isco, Benzema, Ronaldo

Juventus is still undefeated in this Champions League season. In fact, they haven`t lost a meaningful game since mid – January. Since then they had two defeats, but both in matches they didn`t care much about, approaching them without key players. At this point, it is obvious that Juventus is the real deal and nobody will be surprised if they manage to lift the trophy.

The Italians do seem to be better glued and more disciplined than Real. Their defense can hold off the most formidable attacking threats in the world, so Real Madrid won`t find it so easy to create chances as they do against other teams. At the same time, Real’s poor defense could be exposed by Juve’s fast counters.

Juventus seems to have what it takes not to lose this game. On the other hand, beating Real Madrid in regular time in a Champions League final is a very difficult task. I expect a careful approach from both sides and I believe Juve’s chemistry and tactical consistency will make this a pragmatic match.

My tip is the draw. I would argue that it`s the most likely result, so odds have value in my eyes. A safer bet would be a draw on the “Juventus win no bet” market, but I`m sticking with the higher odds and the simpler choice. The bet can provide a solid ROI without much risk in terms of stakes. Prediction: Juventus – Real Madrid 1-1 (Juventus wins via penalties).

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.16 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 3 June