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With just 5 rounds left to go, the race for the title is starting to take some shape in Sweden after there were five teams fighting neck and neck at the top for most of the season. Now Malmo and Goteborg are separated by just one point and are clear favorites to win it all, considering that third placed Helsingborg is 6 points behind the leaders.
Kalmar is one of the better teams in the league but not quite top-class. They are currently on the 5th position, that`s pretty much where they belong, maybe one position lower, behind Elfsborg. Kalmar is the best of the rest but, as I said, they are not at the level of the Top 5 (Malmo, Goteborg, Helsingborg, AIK, Elfsborg). The hosts are undefeated for 5 rounds, but if you look closer their form is not so impressive, they only got 2 hard fought win against very poor opposition in this time span. Kalmar`s latest results are deceiving, as they settled for draws and tight, rugged wins against the weakest teams in the league (except a home stalemate with AIK).
Goteborg is the team of the moment in Sweden, winning the last 4 league games (and 7 of the last 8), including a huge 3-1 derby win over AIK last weekend, a result that gave them great confidence for another 3-1 win against Gefle midweek. Since the start of August, Goteborg won all games in all competitions except a defeat at leaders Malmo. With Malmo one point in front in the standings, and having a relatively easy draw, Goteborg absolutely has to win this one against Kalmar.
The visitors will field a similar first eleven with the one that subdued AIK and Gefle in the last 7 days. Kalmar could be considered to be the fresher side here, having two more days of rest than the visitors, but you could argue without mistaking that Goteborg has more depth to cope with the busy schedule.
Goteborg will make use of its form, experience and class to overcome this resilient but inferior Kalmar side. Kalmar did not lose in September but did not play great either. Focus and confidence are sky-high for the former Euro Cup winners and I doubt they could let this chance to win the Allsvenskan slip away. Anything else than a win would most likely mean losing the title. At the moment Goteborg looks unbeatable in Sweden. I`ll go with the -0,25 handicap as a safety net in case of a draw, but I do trust the Goteborg win. My pick here is 1-2.
Pick: Goteborg (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.02
Event date: 29 September
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 3 for 3 in the last two days at average odds of 1.89
- Rostick accurately predicted Goteborg’s win against AIK on Monday
