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Karolina Pliskova will try to back up her shocking win over Serena Williams with another victory against Naomi Osaka in the Australian Open semifinals.
Pliskova is currently riding a 10 match winning streak, having won Brisbane prior to reaching the semifinals here in Melbourne. Pliskova has lost three sets so far in the Australian Open in her 5 matches against Muchova, Brengle, Giorgi, Muguruza and Serena Williams. The Czech player had some up and downs these last 10 days, and was apparently set to exit the tournament in the quarterfinals when she was behind 6-4 4-6 1-5 and match points down against Serena. However, Pliskova made a miraculous comeback, playing her best tennis to win the next 6 games and the match.
Osaka herself had plenty of ups and downs in the first four rounds, being a set and a break down against both Hsieh and Sevastova – after previously making light work of Linette and Zidansek. Osaka did brilliantly to come back from the deficits in the third and fourth rounds, but her most impressive win came in the quarters – conceding just 5 games to Svitolina en route to a big win.
Bet on Pliskova v Osaka and claim a 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet now!Pliskova leads the H2H 2-1 (all matches on hard), but one of her wins came via an Osaka retirement in a tight clash, so 1-1 would be a more accurate H2H score. Pliskova won the last meeting, last year in the Tokyo final in two sets. Both players are hard hitters from the baseline, so a matchup analysis won`t reveal a particular edge for one player or the other.
Pliskova was really impressive in her comeback against Serena. While Serena did struggle with an ankle injury in the last part of the match (which she downplayed in the press conference), Pliskova did play very well, showing a lot of courage, including when she was down match points.
However, it will be very difficult for Pliskova to recover both mentally and physically after such an exhausting match. That problem will be accentuated by the fact that Pliskova only has 24 hours to recover, so the schedule does not favor her at all. Osaka will only have a couple of hours more of rest, but she also had a much shorter and easier match.
The Japanese put on a really consistent performance against Svitolina, stepping up her level of tennis in the advanced stages of the tournament – like big champions do. She held Svitolina in check when the Ukrainean was playing very well, and then finished things off in style when Svitolina dropped her level in the second set.
Even if Osaka was far from perfect int he earlier rounds, she now seems in the zone, and has been exceptional in the last 4 sets she played. It`s hard to pick against Osaka right now, and considering the short recovery time for Pliskova (who probably still hasn`t figured out what happened in those last 6 games of the deciding set vs Serena), you would expect the Japanese player to reach her second straight Grand Slam final.
My tip will be Osaka to win. Prediction: Karolina Pliskova – Naomi Osaka 4-6 6-3 1-6.
Pick: Osaka
Odds: 1.87 @ 22Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 24 January
