Kazakhstan – Romania

Kazakhstan and Romania square off in the third round of the 2018 World Cup qualifying Group E and the two teams are coming after completely opposite results.

Kazakhstan started the qualifying campaign so well with a 2-2 draw against Poland, but they suffered a shock trashing against Montenegro over the weekend, losing 0-5. The scoreline was definitely too harsh, especially since the score was 1-0 in the 60th minute, but Montenegro mounted up the pressure and Kazakhstan collapsed late in the game. The Kazakhs will definitely be very eager to put on a (much) better showing this time around, in front of their own fans.

Romania is on the back of an exciting 5-0 win in Armenia, only their second win in the last 9 matches. It was the second game under new manager Cristoph Daum and the performance was much improved compared to his first match, a 1-1 home draw against Montenegro in which Romania played horrible. However, it has to be noted that Armenia is one of the worst sides in Europe right now and the large win was facilitated by the hosts getting a red card in the 3rd minute (alongside a penalty for Romania).

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Team news & lineups:

Kazakhstan has a squad composed exclusively of domestic based players for this match. Romania has the same team selection issues as they did against Armenia. Chiriches and Pintilii are out, Filip and Maxim are doubtful.

Kazakhstan: Pokatilov – Beisebekov, Kislitsyn, Logvinenko, Malyi, Shomko – Islamkhan, Kuat, Mukhutdinov, Nurgaliev – Khizhnichenko

Romania: Tatarusanu – Benzar, Sapunaru, Grigore, Tosca – Hoban – Popa, Bicfalvi, Stanciu, Stancu – Andone

Value is definitely on Kazakhstan here, the odds for a Romania win have been artificially decreased after the results of the two teams over the weekend.

Kazakhstan can be a dangerous team at home. They do generally lose against all good opponents, but they put on a fight and have the ability to produce upsets – as showed in a 2-2 draw with Poland in the first round of these qualifiers. The hosts will be desperate to bounce back after that trashing in Montenegro and we can expect them to give it their all here. On the other hand, Romania is also desperate for the three points.

Romania’s win over Armenia wasn`t really as impressive as it was made out to be, considering the disastrous level of Armenian football and the circumstances – with Armenia playing the entire match with 10 men and not having Mhitaryan available. The visitors remain an average team at best with real problems in offense and I believe they will find it hard to break Kazakhstan down.

After the shock results over the weekend, I expect things to return back to normal in this group and that should mean a tight, boring game here with a draw as the most likely result. A narrow Romania win is possible, of course, but a bet on the visitors makes no sense in my eyes, especially at these odds. My tip is Kazakhstan to cover the +0,75 asian handicap. Prediction: Kazakhstan – Romania 1-1.

Pick: Kazakhstan (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.96 @ Sbobet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.76
Event date: 11 October