Kazakhstan – Turkey

Kazakhstan and Turkey square off in Group A of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, as Turkey badly needs a win.

Kazakhstan won a single point so far in this group (5 games), a hard fought 0-0 home draw with Latvia. They also put on a fantastic performance in Holland, despite losing 3-1, but in the other matches they were easily outplayed – losing with handicap against Czech Republic (2-4), Iceland (0-3) and Turkey (1-3). Obviously the hosts have no chance to even fight for a qualifying position and it`s no surprise really when you look at their poor squad – made up only by players from the domestic leagues, with two exceptions, Engel from Ingolstadt and Merkel from Grasshoppers.

Turkey has just 5 points so far in Group A, sitting 2 points behind the 3rd place (Netherlands) and 7 points behind the 2nd place. The situation is truly dramatic for Turkey as Netherlands will surely start winning games and the 2nd place looks too far ahead. It`s safe to say that anything other than a win today would see Turkey virtually knocked out from the qualification race. On the bright side Turkey is in good form lately, turning things around after the poor start and winning 3 of the last 4 matches, including friendlies – the only draw being against Netherlands on the road.

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Team news: Kazakhstan will likely field a lineup of 11 players from the domestic league, while Turkey will have most its starts available for today, including the likes of Arda, Calhanoglu, Yilmaz or Erdinc. Omer Toprak seems to be the most notable absentee from the squad.

With a good, strong projected lineup and a massive need for the three points, I can`t see Turkey blowing its qualifying campaign against the weakest team in the Group. Kazakhstan has a dreadful defense and is not able to frustrate opponents trough tactical consistency, making it very hard to compete against better teams, as we say in this group. Look for the home side to be determnined, but it can`t be enough against a much better Turkey team that is in good form and can bang in the goals.

Turkey should score a couple against Kazakhstan’s poor defense. My tip is Turkey to win this one and cover the 1 goal asian handicap in the process. Odds are dropping on this bet. Prediction: Kazakhstan – Turkey 0-2.

Pick: Turkey (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 12 June