Who could have envision such a final at the US Open two weeks ago? Surely nobody, but Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic will square off for their first Grand Slam title tonight on Artur Ashe.
Nishikori pulled off an incredible result when he defeated Novak Djokovic in 4 sets in the semis, especially considering that the Japanese was on the back of 2 exhausting 5 set wins against Raonic and Wawrinka. Nishikori said himself that he was not fit before the tournament and against Djokovic he struggled physically in the last two sets, but somehow he pulled it off. Indeed, Novak was not at his best and when he accelerated he took a 6-1 set from Nishikori, but still Kei played some great defensive tennis, retreiving the ball and also pushing forward with aggressive shots when he had the chance.
Cilic utterly dominated Roger Federer in the semifinals. Like Djokovic, Federer was not at his best, but one of the reasons for this was Cilic`s serve. The croat was fantastic on his first ball, barely giving Roger any chances, and his offensive-aggressive shots went in one after another. Cilic is on the back of two quick 3 set wins against Berdych and Federer so he`ll enter this match fit and confident.
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The H2H is 5-2 for Nishikori, 4-2 on hard and the Japanese won both meetings this year – 6-1 6-3 at Barcelona (clay) and 6-4 5-7 6-2 at Brisbane (hard). But Cilic was not at his best in the beginning of the year coming after a suspension and he won the last meeting at the US Open in 2012 in 4 sets, so he will have confidence that he can turn the matchup around.
Indeed Kei`s baseline tennis and defensive abilities can frustrate an attacking player like Cilic, the H2H and matchup analysis is in his favor, but Marin is playing at an amazing level right now. Also he could take some valuable experience from the Simon match in the 4th round, when Gilles was also returning everything. Nishikori is the odds favorite today but I will pick Cilic. First of all, he played better tennis so far, Nishikori was close to being defeated by Raonic and Wawrinka and benefited from a way below par Djokovic. I did not see from Cilic the errors that Nishikori made in the semis. Secondly, and most important in my opinion, I just can`t see the Japanese player pulling off another thriller win. Yes, he can run and yes, it`s the biggest match of his life, but after hearing him say that he struggled physically against Djokovic and quote “could not put on my best effort in some games, I had to let some go”, well, I have to take that into account as a big argument in the analysis.
The odds on Cilic are also excellent so despite the fact that the H2H is an argument for Nishi my tip here is Cilic to win. Marin must keep up his amazing service percentages and hold his serve, and I trust he will get chances on the return because Nishikori has not been unbreakable at all in this US Opoen. I have to admit my US Open tips have been below expectations but I trust my analysis on the final and I will bet high stakes, also because of the very good odds.. Prediction: Kei Nishikori – Marin Cilic 6-7 6-3 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Cilic
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.63
Event date: 8 September
I don’t agree with your analyse, you have put some arguments into light and darken the others. Kei has played some excellent tennis in this tournament and deserves to win his first GS after defeating players in full form like Wawrinka and Raonic. He hasn’t played and out of form Djokovic, but a full concentrated and motivated Serb, as the set 6-1 says. Nishi out-played Djokovic for 3/4 sets. If you have seen the match you would understand this. Cilic on the other hand hasn’t defeated players of top form: he defeated Anderson in 4 sets, Simon in 5, Berych in 3 and the match with Federer was the match of his career with serving at his best level. I cannot see him serve like that in a GS final, and if he does, don’t forget that Kei is some hell of a returner and serve himself at his best this two weaks. Stamina wise, let’s consider also the hours more for recory because of the schedule.
But as every punter knows. Nothing is 100% sure and the final point will decide the winner.
Your input is welcome and it adds value to the prediction. I respect what you said and you do have some good points, but I don`t agree with the Djokovic issue. Why do you presume I did not see the match? I saw it, I just took a different opinion from it. Djokovic did have good moments but he was not at his best in my eyes, he made mistakes that he would have never done at his best, especially the 3rd set tiebreak.
Ardeal you are a joke! Cilic is serving amazing trough the whole year now,all top players he played said so, even before US open Djole and Wawrinka and Fed had very hard time to beat him,and now you come here and say Cilic served well with Fed match,like it was a pure luck and inspiration!
Truth is this match is very hard to predict Kei is playing tennis of his life and Marin is doing the same…I predict Marin will win in close encounter!
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/09/37/US-Open-Brain-Game-Cilic.aspx
Cilic outplayed and outpowered Nishikori and I was wrong.
But Alen, as long I have prooved to have some tennis skills, on this site, I think that I am far away of being a joke. When you will come with some insight on any kind for a future match I will read it and see if you’re a punter or a reader only.