Nishikori – Raonic

Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic both need a win in their last group game to stand a chance for qualification, though Kei could go trough even with a loss in certain circumstances.

The Japanese was outstanding in his debut at the World Tour finals, routing Murray 6-4 6-4, but put on a very poor performance in his next match against Federer, losing heavily and making a lot of errors. It was pretty obvious that Nishikori was not at his best physically, he was hurt and it remains to be seen if he had the time to recover from his apparent wrist injury. He has multiple options for qualification today, currently being tied with Murray for second place (but behind in game difference).

Raonic lost both maches so far in straight sets and his chances of advancing are slim, though he does stand a chance if he wins this in straight sets. Milos was outclassed by Federer as usual but he lost surprisingly easy to Murray as well, though he did seem to have a chance of taking the second set. The problem for Milos was his serving percentage, he hit only 53% of first serves in against Andy but as he said, his percentage was more like under 40% – he took a lot of power off most of his first serves in the second set, in order to put more of them in. Milos said he will go back to basics against Nishikori, playing aggressive tennis and hopefully serving much better.

Bet on Kei Nishikori vs Milos Raonic with the best World Tour finals tennis odds at Pinnacle.

The H2H is 4-1 for Nishikori (3-1 this year, 3-0 on hard) and Kei obviously has Raonic figured out, he is usually able to return his serves and work his way into points from the baseline, where he is much better. Kei won the last two meetings, the last one being a five set epic at the US Open. Normally Raonic should have a slight advantage indoor, but the slow surface in London makes this an even playing ground.

Listen, Nishikori seems to be the better player right now, that`s pretty obvious and he holds a massive H2H matchup advantage, but he`s a moody player and he really looked off pace in the Federer loss. If the Japanese player is not at his best he will most likely lose this, and with his wrist problems I doubt he can produce his best tennis. Raonic will be there to take advantage and if he manages to put a little more first serves win, I see him winning against an unfit Nishi. And of course, it`s not like Milos can`t beat Nishikori even if the Japanese will be in good fitness.

The odds on Raonic to win are worth the risk, but I recommend betting with a bookie that does not void the bet in case of retirement. For this reason I will bet with Pinnacle (bet not voided if at least 1 set is completed), despite the fact that Bet365 has slightly higher odds, but they void the bet if the match is not completed. I don`t think Key will retire in the World Tour finals, but if he will have a real problem he will have no choice, so better safe than sorry. My tip is Raonic to win and the price on Milos is dropping because of the physical uncertainty of Nishikori. Prediction: Kei Nishikori – Milos Raonic 6-7 4-6.

Pick: Raonic
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.31
Event date: 13 November