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Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer will square off this Saturday in Halle, a blockbuster semifinal for an ATP 250 tournament.
The Japanese player had a fantastic season so far, posting a 27-6 win loss record and playing some amazing matches against the top guys. His best one was 5 weeks ago in Madrid, when he was on track to defeat Nadal in the final, but got injured late in the second set and had to retire. He was still unfit entering Roland Garros and lost in the first round to Klizan in three sets, but he looked to be better here in Halle, winning a three setter against Monfils before dispatching american Steve Johnson in the quarterfinals, 6-1 7-6.
Roger Federer played some of his best tennis in the first months of the season, but than with the birth of his new pair of twins he lowered his level a little bit, losing in the Rome 1st round and exiting in the Roland Garros 4th round – though he did play very well in the 5 set loss defeat to Gulbis. Here in Halle Roger played just one match, a 3 set win over Sousa, losing the first set but then easily dispatching the Brazilian after getting a feel of the court. The swiss had a bye in the first round and then Lu retired in the quarters.
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Nishikori surprisingly leads the H2H 2-1 and won the last two matches, but both had a similar story to tell. In 2013 Federer was playing his worst tennis in 10 years, and on clay Nishikori prevailed in 3 sets, while this year at Miami Federer was in total control for one set and a half but then suddenly crumbled, started making unforced errors and lost after probably his worst set and a half of tennis this year.
I was expecting the odds movement that is happening now, with Federer going from 1.30 up to 1.50. I find the circumstances to be extremely misleading. Nishikori has a great season, but he is coming after an injury and his fitness is still questionable. He improved his level, but the only top 15 players he defeated this season (from 27 total wins) were Ferrer, Raonic and Federer. His last two wins against Federer were circumstancial to say the least, especially this year. Nishikori has a losing record on grass and will play a master of the green in Roger Federer, in Halle, Roger’s back yard. Federer won 7 times here and he is highly motivated to prove he is still the best player on the surface. The swiss also has to defent the title he won last year here.
All in all I expect Nishikori to give Roger a fight, but I will always back Federer with confidence in these kind of matches against newcomers – especially on grass! If this match was played on hard or clay I would have probably stayed away, but this surface is different and Halle has the fastest grass courts on the tour, a big edge for the swiss. My tip is Federer to win. The only issue I have with this bet is the fact that Roger played just one match on grass so far, but knowing how much he loves the green, I`m pretty sure that`s all he needed to adapt. Aside from another Federer breakdown (which does not happen often on grass), we should see the swiss prevail. Prediction: Kei Nishikori – Roger Federer 7-6 2-6 3-6.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 1.52 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 14 June
