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FC Koln and Hannover 96 will open the Sunday football day in Erste Bundesliga, with both sides needing points, but for different reasons.
Koln is currently on the 6th place in Bundesliga and the good form has opened talks of European participation next year, but Koln can`t afford to lose points at home to a team like Hannover if they are serious about fighting for a Top 7 spot. The hosts are on the back of an emphatic 3-0 win away at Schalke 04 and will look to build on that at home, where they are still undefeated so far (2 wins, 2 draws).
Hannover won a single point in the first 6 rounds, but since manager Michael Frontzeck changed the tactical system to a versatile 4-5-1 the team improved a lot, particularly on the defensive end. Hannover climbed up from the last place in the table after winning 4 points in the last two rounds – a 1-1 draw at Wolfsburg and a 1-0 win over Werder Bremen. Coming after two very impressive results, the visitors will be confident of continuing the good run.
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Team news & lineups:
Both sides are in good health. Koln misses Mavraj, while Hannover misses Hoffmann and Prim.
FC Koln: Horn – Olkowski, Heintz, Sorensen, Hector – Risse, Lehmann, Gerhardt, Bittencourt – Modeste, Osako
Hannover 96: Zieler – Sakai, Marcelo, Schulz, Albornoz – Schmiedebach, Andreasen, Sane – Karaman, Kiyoate – Sobiech
The stats suggest an overish game, as Koln has a 13-12 goal difference in 8 matches, while Hannover boosts a 7-16 goal difference after the same number of games. However, the stats are as misleading as they can get here and provide us with some excellent odds for the under.
The reality is that Koln is not as offensive as advertised, they like to play a possession game, patiently building attacks and most of the goal scoring numbers are due to a 2-6 defeat to Frankfurt earlier in the season. Koln has 3 unders in the last 4 matches. Also, they have a goal difference of just 5-3 in 4 matches at home, where they find it harder to create chances but also defend better. As for Hannover, they have been rock solid since the manager changed the tactical setup, allowing a single goal in two matches against Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen.
The visitors are desperate not to lose this game and after their recent defensive performances, they will clearly rely on the same gameplan in order to get a result. Hannover will be confident in their new system and will aim to frustrate Koln, which might well happen. I expect the hosts to put reasonable pressure, trying to find open spaces to exploit, but it will not be easy. Hannover won`t find it easy to create chances either, as they are still offensively challenged and will adopt a cautious approach.
Last season both meetings finished with under 2,5 goals, as did 4 of the last 5 H2H matches. I can see a tight game played mostly in Hannover’s 30 meter – 50 meter zone of court. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: FC Koln – Hannover 96 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.98 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.86
Event date: 18 October
