Koln – Mainz

Koln comes after a very important victory, 2-1 away at Schalke. Koln profited from the Champions League hang-over (Schlake obtained qualification this week by winning in Slovenia, 1-0 vs Maribor). Koln is an average team, sitting in #11 with 18 pts. They have a very good away record, 4 wins 1 draw and 3 losses, but a very poor record at home, managing just 1 win, 2 draws and 4 losses.

Stats will tell you that Mainz are coming after a series of 5 games without a victory in which they gathered just 3 points (3 draws) from the 15 available. I think Mainz is better than Koln but they just had some problems adapting to their numerous missing players. Now that the situation has somehow stabilized, no missing players in the last 4 games, i expect Mainz to pick-up form and start winning.

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If you look at the position in the standings, the poor home record of Koln and the decent away record of Mainz (1-4-3) you have to consider the +0.5 asian handicap on the guests. Also there are some interesting stats that suggest Koln will suffer. They are the last in the “shots per game” standings. Mainz has scored 7 goals through set-pieces (corners and free-kicks) which makes them #3 in this aspect. Both defenses are poor but i expect Mainz to come back with something from this trip because they are slightly the better side and obviously the more motivated.

My prediction on this midweek Bundesliga game is Mainz +0.5 asian handicap, stake of 8 units with odds of 1.68 at Sbobet for this bet.

Pick: Mainz +0,5
Odds: 1.68 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 16 December