Edmund – Seppi

Kyle Edmund and Andreas Seppi will both play one of the biggest matches of their careers, as the victor of this Australian Open clash will qualify for his first ever Grand Slam quarterfinal.

After reaching the quarterfinals in Brisbane (def. Chung & Shapovalov, lost to Dimitrov), Edmund started off his Australian Open campaign with a brilliant 3-2 win against US Open finalist Kevin Anderson. He backed that up with a routine straight sets victory over Denis Istomin, and the in form Edmund looked set to make light work of his next opponent in the third round. However, he needed a five set marathon to defeat the feisty Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili.

Andreas Seppi had a poor season last year, but the Italian started 2018 in full force, winning the title at the Canberra challenger and qualifying for this Australian Open fourth round. The Italian had a rather accessible schedule, but he played very well all week, and showed character to down Ivo Karlovic in a third round marathon. Seppi won that 6-3 7-6 6-7 6-7 9-7.

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Edmund won the only H2H meeting back in 2016 on indoor hard, a routine two set victory. Both players like to play from the baseline, but Edmund is a little bit more aggressive and will try to use that to his advantage in this clash.

Edmund is rated as a 1.35 odds favorite by the bookmakers and you would expect him to win this match, as he is in good form and is the young player on the rise here. However, Seppi is in great form himself and should be able to hold his own.

Seppi will try to use his experience and movement to derail Edmund who, despite playing very well, did have moments of ‘blackout’ this week – particularly against Basilashvili. The Brit had ups and downs in his matches all year, and Seppi will attempt to capitalize on that.

As previously stated Edmund is a deserving favorite here, but he does not seem steady enough to be able to make light work of a seasoned veteran like Seppi, who is playing good quality tennis himself – also having the confidence of riding an eight match winning streak.

My tip is over 38 games to be played here, a total games line which should normally be covered if the match goes beyond three sets. Chances are we will see a baseline battle with both players having their moments of dominance, but with Edmund’s youth and aggressiveness eventually prevailing. Prediction: Kyle Edmund – Andreas Seppi 5-7 6-2 7-6 6-3.

Pick: over 38 games
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.46
Event date: 21 January