La Rochelle – Toulouse

The French Top 14 is still in full action despite this weekend being dedicated to International Rugby and the first match on Sunday will see La Rochelle hosting Stade Toulousain. The International tests might actually provide an excellent betting opportunity here due to the fact that Toulouse lost an entire team to International duty.

La Rochelle (2nd place) was not expected to so so well this season after finishing 9th last year, but the hosts have been consistently able to upset the odds and fully deserve their second place in the Top 14 table. La Rochelle is showing no signs of slowing down, the team is clicking perfectly right now and they have been particularly strong at home – winning 2 and drawing 2 out of 4 matches. The two draws were good results against the best teams in the league (currently placed 1st and 3rd in the table) – Clermont and Touloun.

Toulouse (5th place) is having an up and down season so far. They played some good matches but also suffered a number of ugly upsets and a consistent trend has been their poor play on the road. Toulouse lost 4 out of the 5 matches played away from home this season in all competitions. The visitors are definitely one of the more talented sides in France and Europe, but they aren`t matching their potential and do not play that well as a team. Today they will miss a lot of key players that left for International duty.

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Team news: Toulouse will be completely decimated ahead of this match, as they had to send 7 key players to the France National team and quite a few others to other International sides. They also miss another French International, Guitoune, due to injury. Meanwhile, La Rochelle lost just 2 players to the France squad and a couple more to other National teams.

• 4 players lost by La Rochelle to International duty this weekend
• 13 players lost by Toulouse to International duty this weekend

Most of Toulouse’s results this season came due to individual talent, but they will not have all that talent available today and that will be a huge problem.

Missing 11 players, many of them key and in crucial positions, is an almost impossible thing to overcome by any rugby team. Any team would be badly hurt by so many missing players, but Toulouse might suffer even more due to the fact that they count on individual talent more than they should. What`s more, they face a team that plays very well together.

La Rochelle is playing better rugby this season, they are strong at home and should win this game in any circumstances against a Toulouse side that struggles on the road. But Toulouse’s absences should allow La Rochelle not only to win, but to run away with the game and win big. This is basically a Toulouse “B” team with no depth and a poor bench, while La Rochelle is almost at full strength.

I expect La Rochelle to have no problems claiming victory. The handicap line does seem a bit high at first sight so I am reluctant to invest more than 8 units, but fact is that Toulouse is simply missing too many players to be highly competitive. Also, La Rochele’s home wins this season came by an average margin of 21 points and they have by far the biggest try differential in the league (+12), so they don`t shy away from covering big handicaps when they can.

Back La Rochele to cover the 10,5 point handicap. Win or lose, I think the facts clearly support this tip and it’s one worth taking. Prediction: La Rochelle – Toulouse 30 – 14.

Pick: La Rochelle -10,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Slbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 13 November