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Round 3 in Euro 2016 qualifying Group A, Latvia hosts Turkey. Turkey needs the points bad after they lost 3-0 to Iceland away and 2-1 to Czech Republic at home Friday!
Latvia held Kazakhstan to a 0-0 draw before losing 3-0 at home to Iceland on Friday … a match that showed their limitations especially on the offensive end, they gave Iceland almost 70% possession. The only positive to take from that football game is that Iceland needed 66 minutes to break the deadlock and 3-0 was a little harsh. For today Latvia will try to play a better defensive game (which they can) and as always try to create some danger on counters (which they were not able to do so far). Latvia misses three regular players for this game (including the keeper).
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Turkey had a poor campaign for the World Cup finishing 3rd, but were recovering at the end of the campaign and with Fatih Terim as coach nobody expected this catastrophical start to Euro 2016 qualifiers … what can you say about Turkey? Obviously they have a very good squad but something doesn`t click and this is happening already for a pretty long time … visitors played chaotic football in their first two matches, maybe a little bit unlucky vs. the Czech Republic but with that kind of defense you just can’t win games. Turkey has a couple of notable injuries: Burak Yilmaz, Demirel, Pektemek, Emre Sahin and Kivrak.
I think to give Turkey odds of a.160 the way they are playing is not such a wise choice. I till tip Latvia to cover the 0,5 handicap today, I think they have a good chance to win or draw. Hosts defend well and it won’t be easy for Turkey to score, not with their form … Latvia is poor offensively but with Turkey’s very poor defense I think hosts have a good chance to expose them on some counters and create a couple of big chances. If they take one, I really think Turkey will be unable to score twice … specially without their main goalscorer Burak Yilmaz. Of course it’s a risky bet but I think the value is on this handicap so I trust my tip. Correct score prediction: Latvia – Turkey 1-1.
Pick: Latvia (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.38 @ Sbobet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 13 October
