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Just 5 hours left until this Europa League playoffs second leg kicks off, so I`m going to jump straight into the analysis. The first leg ended 1-0 for Legia.
Aktobe played a decent game in Kazakhstan and with a little bit of luck they could have snatched a draw, but in the end probably Legia’s win was deserved. The quality difference is obvious here, I watched Aktobe against Steaua Bucharest in the Champions League qualifiers and they are a very good team. Despite only losing 3-2 aggregate in that tie, Aktobe should have lost by more, they don`t have Europa League quality at the moment. They are not even so dominant in Kazakhstan, winning the regular season by just 1 point this year.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Legia looks fantastic this year, playing great football. There were some problems at the club early on in the season but their 6-1 aggregate disintegration on Celtic showed the potential of this team. It was really unfair that they were knocked out by UEFA after that fantastic performance, but their win in Kazakhstan showed they pretty much overcame the disappointment. Legia has excellent quality in offense, they can score and cover handicaps especially at home, where they are known to be particularly strong. Their defense is also working well, the hosts have not allowed a single goal in the last 5 games, so Aktobe will have a very hard task in creating chances.
The 1-0 advantage is not safe enough for Legia to approach this reverse leg with relaxation – it`s just 1 away goal. The Poles will be eager to reach the group stages, they need the money, and I reckon they will attack from the off, play aggressive football and control the game for the whole 90 minutes. Aktobe’s defense is poor, so I can’t see them keeping a clean sheet for too long. At home Legia should do well to put some goals past an inferior opponent so my tip is Legia to win and cover the 1,25 goal asian handicap, a natural conclusion to my analysis. The odds are not spectacular but they are fair. If you`re feeling like going for more value, I can not advise against the 1,5 handicap, but maybe with a slightly smaller bet of 7 units. Prediction: Legia Warsaw – Aktobe 3-0.
Pick: Legia Warsaw (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 28 August
