Leicester – Atl Madrid

Leicester City will take on Atletico Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, with the English side trailing 1-0 after the first match.

The hosts are on the back of a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace, a match in which they rested Drinkwater and Okazaki, but no one else. Leicester has been in great form since Ranieri got sacked and they played a pretty good match in the first leg, so they will feel they have a chance at home – especially as they have not lost at KP Stadium since early February and have won 6 matches in a row at home, all by 2 or more goals.

Atletico Madrid are playing arguably their best football of the season right now and it is definitely the best moment to do so. Simeone’s side has won 7 of the last 9 games – with the only “hiccups” being a 0-0 draw in the 2nd leg against Leverkusen (qualification was already decided) and a 1-1 draw at Bernabeu against Real Madrid. Atletico is on the back of a 3-0 win against Osasuna, despite resting Niguez, Griezmann, Gabi, Koke and Torres.

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Team news & lineups:

Leicester has missed Wes Morgan in recent weeks and he is still questionable for today’s game. He is expected to be forced in the lineup though, as Robert Huth is suspended and backup center back Wague is also out. Ndidi is also a doubt, but he should play. As for Atletico Madrid, they will miss Vrsaljko, Fernandez and Moya.

Leicester City: Schmeichel – Simpson, Morgan (Amartey), Belaouane, Fuchs – Albrighton, Drinkwater, Ndidi, Mahrez – Okazaki, Vardy

Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Janfran, Godin, Savic, Filipe Luis – Niguez, Gabi, Koke – Ferreira-Carrasco, Torres, Griezmann

Leicester acquitted themselves pretty well last week in Spain, with their narrow 0-1 loss coming due to a bogus penalty decision. However, Leicester posted virtually no attacking threat and they were not able to send a single shot on goal.

Leicester will have a big problem at the back with Huth out and Morgan not at 100% (or even not on the pitch at all). The problems go even deeper, as second choice reserve center back, Wague, is also out. If Morgan doesn`t play, or if he gets re-injured, Leicester will probably have to field center midfielder Amartey to partner with Benalouane.

I expect a savvy, organized team like Atletico Madrid to take advantage of Leicester’s problems at the back, as well as being able to exploit that first leg result. Atletico should be able to stay safe at the back, as they usually do, and find a goal or two over the course of 90 minutes – as Leicester gets increasingly desperate.

Atletico Madrid is the better and more experienced team here, they are in brilliant form and (maybe most importantly) they match up very well against Leicester – who likes attacking minded opponents which they can punish on counters. They can`t do that against Simeone’s Atletico, especially not at home after 0-1 in the first leg. When you add Leicester’s injuries in center defense, you would expect the visitors to win this game, even though there`s obviously a chance for Leicester to maybe steal a draw.

My tip will be Atletico Madrid +0 Asian Handicap and it looks like a pretty safe bet in my eyes. Prediction: Leicester City – Atletico Madrid 1-2.

Pick: Atletico Madrid (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.52 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.16
Event date: 18 April