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One of the most interesting matches of the day betting – wise might be Leicester taking on United at home, with some potential value to be found in the bookmakers` odds.
Leicester was eying Premier League football for some time now, and they finally did it last season in an absolute dominant fashion – watching them win the Championship in style I could just bet they will do well in the Premier League, but their level of play has taken even me by surprise. Looking at the statistics you might say that 5 points in 4 rounds is not a performance worthy of praise, but it`s actually a great achievement considering that Leicester played Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton. The only ‘accessible’ game was against Stoke away and Leicester won it 1-0 last round, though they did were a little lucky to do so. Against the previously mentioned ‘giants’ Leicester played excellent football and even in the 2-0 loss at Stamford Bridge they had a lot of chances and pushed the in-form Blues to the limit. Leicester has some great individual quality but their main asset is an excellent tactical consistency and transition from defense to attack, they can kill you on counters.
United and van Gaal finally got a breath of fresh air last round, beating QPR 4-0. The new signings put on a show and the Devils showed just how good they could become, especially offensively. However, we have to keep the praise under control. QPR is arguably the worst team in the league and surely the most prone to heavy beatings, especially away from home. Fact is United had a horrible start to the season, their defense is unconvincing and the tactical formation does not seem suited for Premier League football (though van Gaal has started experimenting). Just because they beat QPR does not mean they will go on a roll now, they still have a lot of work to do.
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Team news & lineups
Leicester will be without Upson, James and Powell. United has a lengthy injury list with Carrick, Wilson, Fellaini, James, Jones, Johnstone, Lingard and Young all unavailable.
Leicester City: Schmeichel – Konchesky, Moore, Morgan, De Laet – Cambiasso, Drinkwater, Hammond, Schlupp – Nugent – Ulloa
Manchester United: De Gea – Rafael, Evans, Rojo, Shaw – Blind, Herrera, Di Maria – Mata – Van Persie, Rooney
I remember thinking a couple of days ago “Man, Leicester +0,5 handicap would be a great bet, but I`m sure United will have odds of about 2.00 so maybe it`s not worth it”. I was shocked to see that United gets odds of 1.65 to win at Leicester. In my opinion no team in the league deserves such high odds to defeat Leicester on the road (Arsenal had 1.90 if I`m not mistaken), the hosts are a really good team and proved without a doubt in this start of the season that they can take on the big boys – United on the other hand still has a long way to prove itself and is just over hyped after the 4-0 drubbing of QPR. Additionally, I feel as United`s style will come just into Leicester`s hands. The hosts are so good on counters and play great transition football, so it will be ideal for them to host a team with poor cohesiveness, a team that will attack and leave spaces, a team that has a poor defense, a team that is not even sure what tactical formation it employs. Expect the hosts to create a lot of danger on the break and I expect Leicester to score at least once.
Of course you can never count out Manchester United, they are still the better team, have amazing individual talent and can win any game on their day – also Mark Clattenburg is said to be a friendly ref for United – but the value in the odds on Leicester is just too good to pass up and I`m confident the hosts will not lose this game. United has beaten Leicester in 9 consecutive Premier League meetings but I doubt that has anything to do with the value in this bet. My tip is Leicester +0,5 handicap. Prediction: Leicester City – Manchester United 2-1.
Pick: Leicester City (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 12.69
Event date: 21 September
