Leicester – Swansea

Leicester City and Swansea will square off in the 35th round of the Premier League and the hosts will be awate that they can`t afford to drop points in this match.

Leicester’s run of 1-0 and 2-0 wins came to an end last weekend, as they were held to a 2-2 draw by West Ham in a crazy match. Leicester seemed to be on track for another 1-0 win, even if Vardy was sent off in the 55th minute, but a late penalty for West Ham changed the whole complexity of the game and in the end the Foxes needed a penalty themselves to salvage a point in the 95th minute. Still, the Foxes maintain a 5 point advantage over Tottenham with 4 rounds to go.

Swansea is on the back of an ugly 0-3 loss at Newcastle, after previously putting in a series of solid performances to save themselves from relegation. Swansea is now 10 points above the drop zone and they do not have anything left to fight for in these last 4 rounds of the season.

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Team news & lineups:

Leicester’s ability to field the best lineup week in week out will be challenged today, as the Foxes will have to play without Jamie Vardy. Dyer and James are also out. Swansea will be happy to report a clean bill of health and they can field their best lineup here.

Leicester City: Schmeichel – Simpson, Morgan, Huth, Fuchs – Albrighton, Drinkwater, Kante, Mahrez – Okazaki, Ulloa

Swansea City: Fabianski – Rangel, Fernandez, Williams, Taylor – Cork, Fer – Ayew, Sigurdsson, Montero – Paloschi

This game is absolutely huge for Leicester, it really doesn`t get much bigger than this. It may well decide the title, because if Leicester wins, their 5 point cushion should be enough to win it all, but if they lose of draw, there will be serious pressure in the last three rounds – and Leicester has a difficult schedule after this match.

With the above in mind, I can`t see Leicester forfeiting the cautious approach which brought them so much success recently. Prior to last week, they were on a 5 match winning run with all games ending 1-0 or 2-0. The 2-2 draw against West Ham was a total fluke, considering the fact that the score was 1-0 for Leicester (who was playing with 10 men) in the 84th minute and 2 of the last 3 goals were scored via penalties.

Swansea will sit back and defend, knowing that this is the blueprint to frustrate Leicester. The hosts will patiently build attacks, with the main objective being not to concede a goal. Without Vardy, they might have serious problems scoring themselves.

All in all, a bet on goals not to happen clearly makes a lot of sense here. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Leicester City – Swansea City 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 24 April