Mayer – Thiem

The grand final at ATP Nice will see Leonardo Mayer take on Dominic Thiem, with both players in devastating form this week.

After routing in-form Monaco in the quarters, 6-3 6-4, Mayer produced another masterclass performance in the semis – easily defeating Borna Coric 6-4 6-3. The Argentinean is playing fantastic tennis right now and he won all sets in this tournament with 6-4 or less. He`s not missing shots and when he is not missing he`s extremely dangerous with his offensive ground strokes and line painting power shots. It`s safe to say that Mayer is playing as good as he ever has.

Dominic Thiem has also won all of his matches in straight sets, including a superb 7-6 6-3 win over Isner in the semis – winning 11 out of 12 consecutive points against Big John at one point in the second set. The youngster was in pretty good shape on clay all season, but he really stepped up to another level this week, showing why he`s rated by most experts as a possible future Grand Slam Champion.

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The Head 2 Head is 1-1, both meetings taking place on clay last year. The clash of styles is pretty interesting, as Mayer’s heavy, attacking shots will be matched up against Thiem’s more cautious game from the baseline – though the Austrian has the capacity to turn defense into offense on the spot, unlike Mayer’s previous opponents, Coric and Monaco.

Both guys are playing the tennis of their life right now and I can’t see any one of them concede a single inch on the court. If you watched their progress so far this week, it`s hard to see anyone of them losing this one by a big margin, as both are hitting highlight winners and barely making unforced errors. The under over line is pretty low, I would have set it at 23 games and I expect it to get there until match time.

Look for some excellent shotmaking from both players and a final that will be decided by the slimmest of margins. This has every chance to go to three tight sets but the under / over line set at 22,5 games can also be covered in two close sets – including, if we buy half a point (which I will), pushing the bet in case of a classic 7-6 6-3 scenario.

All in all, my tip on this one is over 22 games and I will invest high stakes with confidence. Prediction: Leonardo Mayer – Dominic Thiem 6-4 3-6 7-6.

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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.72 @ Betsson
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 23 May