Lille – Caen

Lille is the clear-cut favorite to advance to the Coupe de France semifinals in this single legged home tie against Ligue 2 side Caen. The visitors however will be very aware that they have a fighting chance themselves.

With no chance to win the title, and with only one Coupe de France win in the last 58 years, there`s no doubt that Lille wants this trophy really bad. Manager Rene Girard has acknowledged that aside from getting a Champions League place, the Cup is the main objective for Lille this season. The hosts are 3rd in Ligue 1 but have lowered their level of play in 2014 – until beating Sochaux 2-0 this weekend, Lille had 5 winless matches in the league … and only defeated lower tiear sides like Amiens or Iris Club de Croix in 2014. Still, the Sochaux game showed some improvements and Lille will be confident of getting past a relatively accessible opponent in Caen. Lille will miss Martin, Beria and Corchia. Kjaer and Souare are questionable. Girard won’t make more than 2-3 changes in the squad.

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Caen has a dissapointing season, just the 8th place in Ligue 2 and any chance of promotion basically vanished. The visitors are also in poor form after drawing with Troyes and losing to Metz in the last 2 games. The big problem for Caen this season has been their shaky defense … which allowed 30 goals against some mediocre teams in Ligue 2. It will be interesting to see how that poor defense will resist against the likes of Kalou, Roux or Rodelin. Caen will miss Montaroup and Saez.

The Coupe De France always has some surprises in store but Lille played good football against Sochaux and is motivated to win this competition. Lille is still not in top form but Caen is not a team in-form either … so I reckon the quality difference should prevail. The visitors also don`t have the required tight defense to frustrate better teams and cause problems in the cup. They did beat Ajaccio last round, but Ajaccio is really poor this year. Caen will allow goals against Lille for sure and it’s doubtful they can score themselves … Lille has a very good back line (just 15 goals allowed in Ligue 1). My tip is Lille to cover the -1 asian handicap, a 1 goal win should be almost a banker and they should be able to also put another 1 or 2 goals past Caen. Because of the not so convincing form of the hosts we also get great odds for Lille to win or cover the handicap. These odds play their part in my analysis, pick and staking here. Correct score prediction would be somthing like: Lille – Caen 2-0.

Pick: Lille (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.04 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.32
Event date: 11 February