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The most anticipated football clash of the weekend will see Liverpool take on Chelsea at Anfield, knowing that three points would almost mean winning the Premier League title for the first time in history. Chelsea on the other hand might approach the game with a couple of reserves, resting players for the Champions League 2nd leg against Atletico Madrid, even though they still have a slim chance for the title. Liverpool is first in the league with 3 rounds to go – holding a 5 point advantage over Chelsea and 6 points over Manchester City (with City having one game in hand). Ok, let`s get going with the analysis and see what to bet and where to bet.
Liverpool’s 3-2 win at Norwich last round meant that the hosts have now won 11 consecutive Premier League games, scoring at least 3 goals in 9 of them – a truly amazing run of form. Liverpool has also been a force to be reckoned with at Anfield, posting a statline of 15 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Last time at Anfield they defeated Manchester City 3-2 and will look to repeat that performance in what surely is the match of the season for them against Chelsea.
Chelsea lost 2-1 to Sunderland last round, a result that pretty much ended their title hopes, though they would still have a shot at it if they were to win today at Anfield. The Blues however look to be more focused on the upcoming Champions League clash against Atletico Madrid, with Mourinho stating that the title is gone and that he will probably rest his key players for today. Chelsea has been atrocious on the road this season in all competitions, as they won way less than 50% of their away games and only 2 of their last 9.
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Team news & lineups
Liverpool will miss Coates, Enrique, Henderson and Moses for this clash, while Sturridge has some fitness issues but will almost surely start. It`s unclear to what extent will Mourinho rotate the squad today, but clearly he won`t be able to count on several key pieces like Cech, Terry, Hazard, Eto’o and Ramires.
Liverpool: Mignolet – Johnson, Skrtel, Sakho, Flanagan – Allen, Gerrard, Coutinho – Sterling, Sturridge, Suárez.
Chelsea: Hilario – Ivanovic, Christensen, Cahill, Aké – Matic, Mikel – Salah, Lampard, Schürrle – Ba.
Even if I`m not buying Mourinho`s mindgames that he will play with the second team here, everything screams for a Liverpool win. Chelsea will clearly miss a couple of key players due to injuries and suspensions and very likely at least 1-2 other usual regulars will be rested. ‘Pool has simply played better football lately, they have more motivation and are more than capable to break down Chelsea’s defense. Home court advantage will be huge here considering Liverpool’s strength at home and Chelsea’s road issues. I can`t see a weakened Chelsea side getting anything at Anfield at this stage of the season, even if Mourinho will field a stronger lineup than speculated in the press. If Chelsea will eventually choose to rest almost the whole regular first 11, that would be a nice bonus, but I`m not counting on it.
Unfortunately the odds are not as good as I was hoping and are dropping fast, but considering the circumstances I think they are fair. My tip is Liverpool to win. William Hill is still offering odds over 1.70 so that would be the best place where to bet on this game for a minimum value. I wouldn’t touch anything under 1.65. Prediction: Liverpool – Chelsea 2-0.
Pick: Liverpool to win
Odds: 1.73 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.57
Event date: 27 April
