Liverpool – Everton

The Merseyside derby has never been so hyped up in recent years, with much more at stake this Tuesday than the usual rivalry. A top 4 spot is up for grabs between these two sides, as well as Liverpool`s title hopes, which are hanging by a thread. It should be a top class encounter this one, also considering the superb 3-3 draw in the previous direct meeting this season.

Liverpool has paid the price of two consecutive defeats against City and Chelsea in late January, and now the hosts are 4th in the standings, 8 points behind leaders Arsenal and just 1 point over rivals Everton (6th place). However, ‘Pool quickly put those 2 defeats behind them and the Reds have won 4 and drawn 1 of their 5 games in January. They are coming after a solid 2-0 win at Bournemouth in the FA Cup and the last league game saw them barely drawing 2-2 with Aston Villa. Much of Liverpool`s improvement this season has to be linked with Luis Suarez`s emergence as a top class player. The uruguayan has already virtually booked the goalscoring title, finding the net 22 times in 22 games (8 times more than Aguero) and is playing some amazing football, close to what Messi and Ronaldo are doing – he`s all over the pitch, passing, creating, scoring. I never liked him too much, but I have to say he must be the third best player in the world right now.

After losing David Moyes in the summer, Everton was not expected to be anywhere near the european spots, but manager Roberto Martinez and his brilliant attacking setup (Lukaku, Mirallas, Deulofeu) proved everybody wrong. Everton is just 1 point behind Liverpool as the team played great football this year, challenging the top sides. The visitors are in solid form, winning 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions. Everton has the fewest defeats in the Premier League (two), but they have been pretty prone to draws (nine).

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Team news & lineups

Sakho, Leiva, Agger, Johnson, Coates and Enrique are all out for ‘Pool, while Allen will be a game time decision. Aside for Oviedo, Gibson and Kone who will surely miss out, Everton also has a couple of major doubts for today: Jagielka, Distin, Alcaraz, Coleman, Traore, Pienaar and Barkley, The first 4 are part of the defensive line and it will be a serious problem for Everton is all of them were to miss the game.

Liverpool: Mignolet – Kelly, Skrtel, Toure, Cissokho – Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho – Suarez, Sturridge, Sterling

Everton: Howard – Coleman, Jagielka, Distin, Baines – Osman, McCarthy, Barry – Mirallas, Lukaku, Pienaar

Taking into account the attacking force of both sides, the recent 3-3 draw between them and Everton`s selection doubts in defense, there could be a couple of goals here and I think at least one of them will be scored by Luis Suarez. The Liverpool striker is really something else right now and he should be expected to score in basically every game, as his 1 goal per game average suggests. A player of his caliber is even more likely to shine in the big games and it`s not a surprise that he scored in 3 of the 4 Merseyside derbies he played in. A downside is that Suarez does not take penalties for Liverpool, but he does take free kicks and he does it in brilliant fashion from as much as 30 meters. With much tension to be expected between the two rivals, it`s fair to expect a decent number of dangerous free kicks, and Suarez shouldn`t need more than 2 or 3 of those to produce a solid kick and maybe score. I can`t see either of Everton`s center backs coping with Suarez`s technique and pace, and if Distin, Coleman or Jagielka won`t play, than the Liverpool striker should really have it easier than expected.

The over 2,5 goals bet also looks like a decent choice, but the odds are very short. I will tip Suarez to score at anytime, the odds aren`t great for this one either but I would be really surprised if Luis fails to deliver in such an important game, also considering that he did not score in the last Premier League match vs. Villa. Prediction: Liverpool – Everton 2-1.

Pick: Luis Suarez to score at anytime
Odds: 1.83 @ Winner
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 28 January