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Lleyton Hewitt and Tomas Berdych will square off in an exhibition match in Hong Kong counting for the World tennis day friendly competition (surface: hard court). This pick comes pretty late with 2 hours before the start of the match but I still think it`s worth writing. Obviously, I will be as concise as possible.
I think Hewitt has decent chances to take this. The Australian has been healthy so far this season, which is something very important to him, and has shown very good tennis at times. Lleyton won the Brisbane tournament in January defeating Federer in the final and proving he can still take on the big guys. Of course, Berdych is the better player now, but the circumstances don`t favor the czech. Yes, Tomas has been in brilliant form this season, but he can`t really be expected to be at his best for this match. Berdych just played the Dubai final on Saturday (l. to Federer in 3) and is focused on a long run in Indian Wells, so a trip to Hong Kong might well find him lacking motivation.
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Berdych has never been too good in these exhibition matches and last year Hewitt destroyed him 6-3 6-2 at Koyoong, so that seems a pretty relevant piece of information. The H2H in official matches is 2-0 for Tomas, but these two haven`t met since 2009.
Hewitt retired last week in the Delray Beach second round but apparently it wasn’t anything serious so he should be able to compete here without any problems. My tip is Hewitt to win this. I’m expecting Berdych to be a little tired and not at his best, while Lleyton is relishing the chance to beat the top guys any time he gets the chance. Also, I can’t see the Czech putting much effort into this if things don’t go his way from the start, he’s probably a little tired and needs his fitness for a tough Indian Wells ahead. All in all, at the current odds, a bet on Hewitt is surely worth the risk. Prediction: Lleyton Hewitt – Tomas Berdych 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Hewitt
Odds: 3.40 @ Winner
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 3 March
I totally agree on your analysis. When I saw the odds for 1.36 for Thomas Berdych, I thought that odd was great, given Thomas Berdych’s recent form and solid predictable performance. So I bet my not so insignificant bankroll.
But then I saw your analysis and given it’s only an exhibition, I tend to agree that the motivation will not be there to work through for Berdych whereas Lleyton is such a fighter and wanting to prove to himself he still has it in him to play with the top players that there’s 50:50 chance that he would win this exhibition match.
Glad I managed to void the bet before it started. I’ll put a nominal amount for Hewitt based on your tip. Cheers
Thanks, your insight saved me a small fortune – the nominal win also helped to partially recover the upsets against Golden State (US Basketball) and NZ Pulse (ANZ Netball)! 🙂
Thanks for the insight, sorry for taking so long to approve the comment. happy I could help, especially after my recent horrible run of results.
Very nice tip man !
thanks. indeed it turned out well, after only a couple of minutes it was pretty clear Berdych was 100% on exhibition mode. Hewitt saw that and started playing lightly himself, but still way more determined.
The 2nd set was more of an exhibition than I thought it would be, but still Lleyton was at least running for the ball. I’d even say Berdych intentionally lost the game at 5-6 in the 2nd set to avoid a potential 3rd, missing 2 unmissable shots considering the slow pace of the game and light hitting.