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Lokomotiv Moscow vs. Rostov at Stadion Lokomotiv, 3rd round of Russian Premier League.
The hosts have 4 points after the first 2 rounds and have not received a goal yet: 0-0 vs. Krasnodar at home, 2-0 vs. Arsenal Tula away. The point tally is pretty good for Lokomotiv who is one of the top teams in Russia of course, but the truth is they did not play so well and even the fact that they did not concede is a total fluke. Lokomotiv did not clearly dominate any of the two matches they played and gave away loads of goal chances … especially vs. a poor team like Arsenal Tula they were very lucky to escape with a clean sheet and were under pressure for long stretches. If Lokomotiv is to win today, they probably need to improve a bit.
Lokomotiv Moscow lineup: Abayev – Yanbaev, Durica, Corluka, Denisov – Tarasov, Shishkin, Samedov – Fernandes, Maicon – N`Doye
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
After winning the Cup last year Rostov had big hopes this year also, but the start to the season was beyond the worse imagination: Rostov allowed 12 goals in 3 games (!!!) … lost 3-1 to CSKA in the Super Cup, 7-3 to Dinamo Moscow and improved a little bit last round to get a draw at Kuban Krasnodar … but still allowed 2 goals in a 2-2 draw. For sure they would like to defend better today but the back line is so out of rhythm that it will surely take some time before things improve. Rostov is expected to field identical lineup compared to the 7-3 loss vs. Dinamo in the 1st round.
FK Rostov lineup: Pletikosa – Abazov, Bastos, Djakov, Milic – Kalachev, Fatullaev, Gatkan, Poloz – Torbinski – Bukharov
Normally Lokomotiv should be able to win this game maybe even with handicap thinking how Rostov plays defensively; but the hosts have not impressed so far and I think the risk is too big to pick them at 1.50. My tip will be over 2,5 goals instead. Rostov is conceding goal after goal but they also have offensive power and created loads of chances vs. teams like CSKA or Dinamo Moscow (even if they lost some top attacking players from last season) … Lokomotiv on the other hand has goal difference of only 2-0 after 2 matches and this makes the odds on the over very high here; but as I said Lokomotiv was lucky, their defense was not extraordinary so far and for sure they can concede at least a goal. Lokomotiv also might miss the regular GK Guilherme who was fantastic so far. I count on Rostov scoring once or twice but I also have a backup plan in mind, I think that if Lokomotiv has a really good day they can score 3 themselves and cover this bet for us. Pick the over 2,5 goals bet. Correct score prediction: Lokomotiv Moscow – FK Rostov 3-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.60
Event date: 14 August
