Betdistrict.com
Lorenzo Sonego will meet Stefanos Tsitsipas tonight in the Miami Open third round.
Sonego as been steadily climbing in the rankings over the past couple of years and was particularly impressive at the end of 2020 in Vienna, where he beat Novak Djokovic and reached the final. However, this year has been average for him, with 6 wins and 6 losses. Here in Miami he defeated Fratangelo and Galan in a couple of tight two set matches (6-4 7-6 and 7-6 6-3).
Tsitsipas is playing great in 2020, posting a 16-4 record and reaching the final at Acapulco (lost to Zverev) before arriving in Miami one week later. He had an easy win against Dzumhur in his first match and followed that up with a 6-3 3-6 6-1 victory against Nishikori.
This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players.
I watched Sonego in both of his matches this week and he was not impressive. He had to work for his wins despite facing below average opposition, and against Galan he had serious trouble for a set – even having to save a couple of set points. He was not very sharp and did not play error free.
As for Tsitsipas, he is looking really good right now, and also has shown consistency all year. He was excellent against Nishikori, and quite honestly he should have won that in straight sets. He was so dominant, that I felt no anxiety going into the third set, despite having money on him. I felt that the possibility for him to lose was very low even if the match was tied 1-1 at that point.
With Tsitsipas playing some of his best tennis and with Sonego looking average this week, I can’t look past a clear cut win for the Greek, and I can’t see Sonego taking a set. Maybe Tsitsipas will also be a bit more careful not to lose focus after prolonging the match against Nishikori more than he should have last night. Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego – Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-6 4-6.
Pick: Tsitsipas -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.56 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 30 March
