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Game 7 of this years’ most electric NBA playoff first round, as the Clippers are taking on the Spurs at home, at Staples Center – with LA potentially grabbing their biggest ever series win after facing extinction two days ago in San Antonio, only to come back and make in 3-3 on the road.
Clippers put on a great performance on Thursday night, especially defensively, winning 102-96 in San Antonio to avoid being knocked out and force this Game 7 at home. They dominated the game and would have won by a larger margin if Belinelli didn’t explode from the 3 point line (7-11). Chris Paul and Blake Griffin had a huge second half but it all came at a price, as both played over 40 minutes (Paul played 44). Also Key bench big man Glen Davis got injured and is questionable for tonight’s clash – it would be a massive problem considering LA’s poor bench, which already hurt them a lot in this series.
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San Antonio is having its fair share of problems in this series, most notably Tony Parker playing below his standards due to an Achilles injury, Splitter missing free throws and playing poorly due to a calf injury and Danny Green unable to hit from the three point line. However, the depth and experience of the current champions allowed them to almost win it all on Thursday, despite being second best for the whole match. I expect Parker to step it up in the decisive match and we are set to see a very good performance from Kawhi Leonard as well, who was dreadful on Thursday – really unlikely for last years’ final MVP to play two bad games in a row.
I had a small bet on Spurs to win Game 6, but as the match was getting to the end, I almost didn’t know if I wanted Spurs to win – thinking of the odds and the potential profit on Game 7. I really fancy Spurs to take this one home. Their experience in these situation is as big as it gets, while Clippers barely have a handful of such matches in their history and don’t have players that are used to closing out tight series. There`s also the fact that Big Baby Glen Davis could miss out, further deteriorating Clippers’ already modest bench. Paul and Griffin played massive minutes in this series, particularly on Thursday, they will need to play big minues again – especially Griffin, if Davis is out – so fatigue could be a factor.
Home court advantage is clearly diluted in this series with both teams winning twice on the road and San Antonio is not a team to have problems of winning away. It will likely be close, but Spurs have a better ability to close it out and the odds are higher than they should be. I`m also counting on Greg Popovich to make a difference, coaching is the most underrated factor in basketball and you have to feel that Pop has the edge over Doc Rivers, who I consider to be overrated.
Spurs were really bad on Thursday, while Clippers played a near perfect match in the second half. This is unlikely to happen for a second time in a row, so my tip is SA Spurs to win. Prediction: LA Clippers – SA Spurs 98-105.
Pick: Spurs
Odds: 2.17 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.6
Event date: 3 May
