Pouille – Ramos

Lucas Pouille from France and Albert Ramos-Vinolas from Spain will square off in what looks set to be a very evenly matched clash in the Roland Garros third round.

Pouille had serious problems in the first round against Julien Benneteau, barely edging out the veteran in 5 sets despite being a 1.10 pre-game favorite. Nevertheless, Pouille found his rhythm in the next round, demolishing Bellucci 7-6 6-1 6-2 and seemingly getting back at his best. The Frenchman started the clay court season in top form, reaching the semifinals at Monte Carlo and winning Budapest, but he struggled a bit in the events right before Roland Garros.

Albert Ramos had the best tournament in his career in Monte Carlo, where he reached the final (def. Pouille, lost to Nadal), but had problems after that, losing 4 matches in a row before Roland Garros. However, there`s no doubt about the fact that Ramos is back at his best here in Paris. He clearly beat an in form Copil (6-7 6-1 6-4 6-2) in the first round, looking at some points like he could not lose a rally, and went on to ruin Bonzi in the third round (6-2 6-2 6-1).

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Ramos-Vinolas leads the H2H 2-1 (2-0 on clay) and he won the last meeting just 5 weeks ago, in the Monte Carlo semifinals (6-3 5-7 6-1). He`s a slightly more natural clay court player than Pouille, but the Frenchman can also play well on the red dirt (might be his best surface) and he has been excellent on the red dirt this season.

Pouille and Ramos find themselves in remarkably similar situations ahead of this match. Both are having a career year, both had huge success early in the European clay season but lost form in the tournaments before Roland Garros, and both regained their rhythm here in Paris.

Ramos seems to have the edge here despite what the bookies say, as he has played really good tennis in this tournament so far, looking unbeatable from the baseline. He was racking up 10+ points in succession in rallies and barely making any mistakes. On the other hand, he hasn`t faced top players, and he is not as talented as Pouille.

There might be some value on Ramos but Pouille is too good for me to go against him here. I will choose a safer option and back the over 3.5 sets. Both guys are in fine form in this tournament and have played the tennis of their lives over the current European clay court season. It`s hard to see one guy dominating the other for three consecutive sets.

My tip is over 3,5 sets to be played, I think odds shouldn`t be higher than 1.40 for this bet. I`m taking this instead of the over 39.5 games line, because that line could be very tricky if it doesn`t go to 5 sets – as neither player owns a big serve, so at least one quick set is possible (and there`s no guarantee for a tiebreak). Prediction: Lucas Pouille – Albert Ramos 6-7 6-2 6-4 3-6 4-6.

Pick: over 3,5 sets
Odds: 1.48 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.32
Event date: 2 June