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Lucas Pouille will take on local favorite Alexei Popyrin in the third round at the Australian Open on Saturday morning.
Pouille`s form has been pretty shaky for about a year now. The Frenchman lost 4 of his last 5 matches in 2018 and the first 4 matches in 2019. He played Hopman Cup and Sydney, losing all matches against Ebden, A. Zverev, Ferrer and Rublev. As such, Pouille entered the Australian Open on a 7 match losing streak. While he did well to advance to the third round, Pouille didn`t play lights out tennis at all. He had an easy draw, beating Kukushkin 3-0 before struggling big time against Marterer (7-6 7-6 5-7 6-4).
The 149th ranked Popyrin is having a dream run so far at his home tournament. The teenager wasn`t expected to do much damage on the main draw, but he defeated Mischa Zverev in straight sets in the first round, and followed that up with a shock victory over Dominic Thiem. Granted, Thiem retired with Popyrin leading 6-4 7-5 2-0, saying that he felt weak and sore for the entire match. The Austrian didn`t play at his usual level, but it was still impressive for Popyrin to hold his nerve and dominate the match.
Bet on Pouille v Popyrin and claim a 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet now!This will be the first meeting between the two players. The surface might represent a tiny advantage for Popyrin as he`s a natural hard courter, while Pouille is more suited for clay and indoor hard (a strange combination) – but the Frenchman can obviously play very well on outdoor hard also, so all in all the surface won`t be a big factor.
The young Aussie has a golden chance here, because Pouille is really not playing that well, and hasn`t played at his best in quite a long time. Popyrin is full of confidence, his level of tennis is solid, and he is feeding with energy from the crowd. The fans really seemed to have helped him so far, and that should be the case again in this clash.
Even if Pouille is not in his best form, this will still be the biggest test of Popyrin`s career, considering the fact that Thiem wasn`t quite himself in the previous round. But looking at the odds on Alexei, there is clearly some value there.
My tip will be Popyrin to cover the +1,5 set handicap. Odds on the straight win for Popyrin are very tempting, but I feel taking the set handicap is a good safety net to have – just in case the teenager melts under pressure against a much more experienced opponent in a potential fifth set.
If Pouille doesn`t raise his level, he could well get punished by the dynamism and exuberance of Popyrin. Prediction: Lucas Pouille – Alexei Popyrin 6-7 6-3 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Popyrin +1,5 sets
Odds: 2.04 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.32
Event date: 19 January
