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Lucas Pouille and Diego Schwarzmann will face off in the fourth round at the US Open, with Pouille currently a 1.75 – 1.80 odds favorite according to the bookies.
Pouille hasn`t won a single match between Wimbledon and the US Open, playing just twice on the American hard courts and failing to even win a set against Paul (Washington) and Donaldson (Montreal). The Frenchman regained some of his groove here at Flushing Meadows, but fact is he wasn`t particularly impressive in his victories against Berlocq, Donaldson and Kukushkin, already losing three sets – 2 against Donaldson and one last round vs. Kukushkin.
The petite Diego Schwartzman has never been a great hard court player, but this season has been different. The Argentinean had a fantastic showing at the Montreal Masters, where he reached the quarterfinals after defeating the likes of Thiem and Donaldson. He continued on the same note at the US Open, winning all his matches in straight sets losing a total of one set against Berlocq, Tipsarevic and Cilic. The win over Cilic in the previous round was obviously the most impressive, even if Cilic didn`t have his best day.
Schwartzman leads the H2H 1-0, but the only meeting was back in 2013 on clay, so it`s not relevant. An analysis of playing styles doesn`t reveal an advantage for one player or the other. Normally you would think the surface favors Pouille a little bit, but he is not a great hard courter either, and Schwartzman this season took his hard court game to a different level.
Pouille is the more talented player, but it`s hard to dispute that Schwartzman is the player in form here. The Argentinean is playing very solid tennis from the baseline and he will enter this match with a lot of confidence after not losing a single set losing just one set so far and defeating Cilic in the 3rd round.
Pouille doesn`t quite seem at his best even if he finally got some wins under his belt this week, and the consistent Schwartzman should be able to take advantage of that with his fast running and safe hitting, potentially forcing mistakes from the Frenchman.
Pouille can win this if he raises his level and play a bit better than in the previous rounds, as the quality is on his side, but there is no indication of that happening and personally I think the obvious choice is to side with the in form Schwartzman here. The price he has to claim victory seems to have some pretty good value.
Odds are dropping on the Argentinean to win, so I will waste no more time. My tip is a Schwartzman victory, but 6-7 units is the maximum I can recommend for this bet. Prediction: Lucas Pouille – Diego Schwartzman 6-3 3-6 7-6 4-6 4-6.
Pick: Schwartzman
Odds: 2.16 @ Jetbull
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.12
Event date: 3 September
Good analysis.
One correction, Schwartzman did lose one set, it was the 1st one against Cilic.
Thx for the correction. I watched the second part of that match and somehow my brain forgot about that first set. When I checked the stats I guess my eyes played a trick on me, as I didn`t notice the error.
To be honest i wanted to go with pouille one this one. But after reading your pick it make sense to bet on schwarzman.
It`s always good to see things from another perspective, but you always have to be careful when changing your opinion by 180 degrees. This is a pretty close match really, but I think facts say Schwartzman is the favorite. Hopefully you made the right call