Lacko – Ebden

Lukas Lacko and Matthew Ebden will square off in the second round at ATP Newport. Both players recorded straight set wins Tuesday in the opening round, but their level of play was different.

Lacko defeated the 19 year old American Reilly Opelka in the first round, but his 7-6 6-4 win was far from impressive. Opelka had an absolute stinker, playing some very poor tennis, and even so he was able to pose a real challenge – almost stealing the first set. Lacko played tentative and unconvincing, looking below his usual level – which isn`t that high anyway. The 127th ranked Slovakian did post a 8-4 win-loss record in 2017 on grass, but he wasn`t able to win any matches on an ATP main draw before Tuesday`s victory over Opelka.

Ebden had a very similar grass court season to Lacko so far, posing a 10-4 win-loss record, but winning all his matches in qualifiers. However, the Australian showed much better tennis than the Slovakian in the first round in Newport. After passing the qualifying tournament (def. Klein and Ramanathan), Ebden managed to destroy the two time champion Rajeev Ram on Tuesday, winning 6-1 6-4 on the back of a very solid performance.

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Ebden leads the H2H 2-1 (1-1 on grass), but the last meeting was back in 2015. Both players like the surface, with Lacko having a 58% career winning record on grass (all levels), while Ebden`s percentage stands at an impressive 64%.

Bookies opened with Lukas Lacko as a 1.70 – 1.75 favorite, but the price started shifting instantly with bets coming in on Matthew Ebden. That is not exactly a surprise considering how Lacko and Ebden played in the first round.

The two players had a similar grass court season so far, but they looked totally different on Tuesday here at Newport. Lacko struggled against a very poor Opelka, while Ebden showed a really high level to dismantle Rajeev Ram – with Ram actually playing decent tennis for most of the match.

It was some tournament-winning level of tennis from the Australian in that clash, with Ebden playing excellent both on serve and on return, opening angles and showing very few weaknesses overall.

Ebden seems like he could have a very good tournament here, he loves the event, moves well on the surface and has great rhythm after passing qualifications and playing a great match against Ram. If Lacko doesn`t improve compared to his showing in the first round, he will lose this encounter.

I wouldn`t be surprised if the Australian becomes the odds on favorite until game time, the price is definitely going fast in that direction at the moment.

My tip is Matt Ebden to win. Prediciton: Lukas Lacko – Matthew Ebden 7-6 4-6 3-6.

Pick: Ebden
Odds: 2.13 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.04
Event date: 19 July