Luxembourg – Sweden

Luxembourg hosts Sweden in the second round of the World Cup 2018 qualifiers. The two teams are in Group A, alongside teams like France, Netherlands or Bulgaria.

In a time when small nations are making enormous progress, Luxembourg is not quite able to do so. The hosts have lost the previous 6 matches, conceding 2 or more goals in each of them. They are on the back of a 3-4 loss in Bulgaria, which was actually a pretty impressing performance considering that the winning goal was scored in injury time. The hosts will hope to build on that performance and try to get a point against Sweden.

Sweden claimed a 1-1 home draw against Netherlands in the first round of the qualifiers, but life without Zlatan Ibrahimovic is not looking promising. The Swedes were offensively challenged even with the Manchester United star in the team (2 goals in the last 4 matches), so with him gone they will likely struggle a lot to score goals. The match against Netherlands was a prime example, as Sweden was utterly dominated.

Team news: Sweden is dealing with the retirements of many key players, including Ibrahimovic, Isaakson, Kallstrom, Johansson, Wernbloom or Zengin. Sebastian Larsson is out. Luxembourg is pretty much at full strength.

Strangely, Luxembourg seems to be the more attacking minded team in this clash, but I doubt this match will see many goals. The hosts can play open football when the opposition does it as well, but this time they meet a team that has a boring style of play with no penetrating force. It`s not like Luxembourg will go all out attack on Sweden. The visitors are the team which will impose the rhythm – which will be slow – so Luxembourg will have no choice other than to sit back and defend.

I doubt Luxembourg will score here, even if they banged in 3 goals in Bulgaria in the first round. Sweden, for all its faults, is very strong defensively so I believe they should be safe at the back. At the same time, I doubt they can score more than 2 or 3 goals considering how poor their offensive game is.

As my analysis suggests, I will back a low scoring game here. My tip is under 3 goals to be scored and I will bet medium stakes on the pick. Prediction: Luxembourg – Sweden 0-2.

Pick: under 3 goals
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.76
Event date: 7 October