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All American quarterfinal clash here at the Australian Open between the emerging Madison Keys and the rejuvenated Venus Williams.
The 19 year old super talent Madison Keys has really stepped up her game in these two weeks at Melbourne and she`s playing the best tennis of her life. The American has one of the sharpest offensive games on tour, blasting winners all over the place, but right now she`s finally finding consistency and is limiting her unforced errors – a situation in which she`s very, very hard to beat. Keys cruised to the quarters, losing just one set against Dellacqua – but easily recovering to win the next two. In the previous round she easily defeated in-form Brengle, after previously dispatching Petra Kvitova in two sets.
Venus Williams was already showing signs of improvement last year, but here at the Australian Open she really managed to turn back the time, playing some excellent tennis and beating Radwanska in the 4th round in three sets. However, I have to say that Venus did look very vulnerable at times – she almost lost to Giorgi and had a huge letdown in the second set against Radwanska – with the Pole playing a really bad game for her standards. Despite showing a top level overall, Venus is alternating periods of great play with blackouts in which she can`t hit a first serve or avoid errors. She looked tired at times against Radwanska and her movement is not quite what it used to be.
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The H2H reads a 1-0 advantage for Venus, a 2-0 win on green clay at Charlston two years ago. I wouldn`t say any player holds a matchup advantage, both like to hit hard, Keys taking a little more risks but Venus having a better serve.
Watching these two play so far, I can only be all over Keys here. Madison has played better tennis than Venus and youth is certainly an advantage with Venus looking tired at times in the previous round. The American`s movement has decreased over the years and I can see Venus being outhit by Keys, unable to return the teenagers’ offensive shots. Williams has experience on her side and that will always count a lot in a Grand Slam quarterfinal, but I can see her eventually running out of steam and losing in 3 sets to a player that is simply fitter and playing better tennis. Look for Venus to play her best tennis for a set and Keys to maybe get cold feet at some point, but Williams will not be able to consistently run down Keys’ sharp groundstrokes.
My tip is Madison Keys to win. Odds are really solid and I can see them dropping a bit until match time. Prediction: Madison Keys – Venus Williams 6-3 4-6 6-2.
Pick: Keys
Odds: 2.37 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.96
Event date: 28 January
