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Interesting second round match tonight in Guadalajara between Magdalena Frech and Sarra Soribes Tormo.
Magdalena Frech had to fight a grueling battle in the opening round against Renata Zarazua, escaping with a rather unimpressive 7-6 4-6 6-4 victory. It was her 4th win of the year to go along with 4 losses, and it’s safe to say the 97th ranked Pole isn’t looking particularly sharp so far in 2022.
Sorribes Tormo is also struggling a bit this year, at least for her standards, but overall she has shown a decent level, including in her two losses against Rakhimova (Melbourne Summer Set) and Rybakina (Australian Open). Here in Guadalajara she started pretty solid, defeating Katie Volynets 6-4 6-1 for her third win of the year. Sara was searching for her rhythm in the first set, she was not quite at her best, but once she found it, she looked sharp.
This will be the first meeting between the two players.
Magdalena Frech has never in her career beaten a Top 50 player and I see no reason for that trend to be broken now.
Frech was quite poor against Zarazua in the first round, showing passive tennis and often looking like she was at the mercy of her opponent. With Zarazua not yet a top quality player and unable to maintain a stable level of play, Frech escaped with the victory, but that kind of tennis will be nowhere near enough against Sorribes Tormo.
The Spaniard might not be at her A level, but she’s playing pretty well, and looked better and better as the match against Volynets went on. These slow hard courts in Guadalajara suit her perfectly and it’s hard to see how a player like Frech could trouble her. Frech does not have the weapons to put pressure on Sorribes Tormo’s defense, especially on slow surfaces, so I am tempted to say that this is really a perfect matchup for the Spaniard. She should have no trouble defending from the baseline and she also has more offensive firepower than Frech.
I could take Sorribes Tormo to win with 10 units at 1.40-1.45, I think the odds have value, but we know how tricky WTA tennis can be, so maybe it’s smarter to go with slightly lower stakes for a higher potential reward. I think the straight sets victory presents the perfect opportunity for this, as I really can’t see what weapons Frech has at her disposal to outplay the Spaniard for an entire set.
I expect a match played from the baseline, with Sorribes Tormo being a bit better in every faucet of play from start to finish. Prediction: Magdalena Frech – Sara Sorribes Tormo 4-6 2-6.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.10 @ BetInAsia
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 24 February
