
FSV Mainz and Bayern Munich will square off on Friday evening in the opening match of the German Bundesliga 13th round.
Mainz is having a typical season so far, floating mid table and playing very good football at home. The hosts have won their last three matches at home in the Bundesliga, scoring 8 goals in the process – but also lost their previous 3 away games , conceding 8 goals in the process. Offense has been a constant for Mainz this year, but defensively they are very shaky. Mainz has a 22-22 goal difference in 12 rounds and only Werder Bremen scored and conceded more goals in this Bundesliga season.
Bayern isn`t doing particularly well right now. The Bavarians are on the back of a hard fought 2-1 home win against Leverkusen, but they are still trailing Leipzig by 3 points at the top of the Bundesliga table. The Leverkusen victory was actually Bayern’s first win in 4 matches in all competitions, after they lost to Dortmund and Rostov, also drawing at home with Hoffenheim. Ancelotti seems in need of more time to get this side to reach its potential, especially defensively – as the back line was poor recently, allowing goals in each and every game.
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Berggreen, Clemens and Gbamin are unavailable for Mainz, while Muto is doubtful. Bayern has only two injuries to deal with, Coman and Green. However, the likes of Costa and Robben aren`t quite fully fit and might be preserved for the upcoming Champions League clash against Atletico Madrid, even if that will be a dead rubber.
Mainz: Lossl – Donati, Balogun, Bungert, Bussmann – Bell, Frei – Ramalho, Oztunali, Samperio – Malli
Bayern: Neuer – Lahm, Boateng, Hummels, Alaba – Alcantara, Alonso, Vidal – Ribery, Lewandowski, Muller
The hosts have a lot of firepower and play positive football even against the big teams. The average number of goals scored in their games this season stands at 3,67 goals per game (!!) so they will be confident of finding the net at home even against the mighty Bayern – especially since Bayern has not kept a single clean sheet in the last 7 matches in all competitions – and just one clean sheet in the last 11 matches.
Ancelotti’s defense definitely looks shaky right now and a team like Mainz should be able to take advantage. On the other hand, the Bavarians are obviously expected to score goal(s) themselves, considering the top quality they have in their ranks.
The above facts make me believe that both teams to score is the bet to take here and that odds as high as 2.00 represent very good value. In the last meeting, back in March, Mainz won 2-1 at Allianz Arena.My tip is both teams to score. Prediction: Mainz – Bayern Munchen 1-2.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 1.98 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.86
Event date: 2 December
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