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FSV Mainz and Hertha Berlin will square off in the Bundesliga last round, with direct qualification to the Europa League group stages on the line. Things are simple: Mainz, Hertha and Schalke (in this order) are tied for the 5-7 places, with nowhere to move up or down outside of those spots. All of them have qualified for Europa League, but the 5th and 6th place will play directly in the group stages, while the 7th place will have to enter the competition earlier, in the playoffs. Schalke will play against Hoffenheim on the road.
Mainz did not play too well since March, winning just 1 out of 8 matches before claiming another victory last weekend. It was a solid 3-1 win over an ultra motivated Stuttgart team, on the road, so Mainz will definitely be happy with that performance – although Stuttgart is in disastrous form right now.
Hertha Berlin managed to blew its entire season in the last month. The visitors lost everything in just 4 weeks due to recording 6 wins and 1 draw in the last 7 matches. Hertha got knocked out of the Cup semifinals and most importantly lost Champions League football after seeming a lock to finish Top 4 before April. Their 1-2 home loss to Darmstadt last round put the final nail in Hertha’s coffin and showed how low their morale really is.
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Team news & lineups:
Hack, Berggreen and Muto are out for Mainz, while Bell is doubtful. Hertha Berlin can’t count on Skjelbred and Ibisevic. Kalou will probably have to play as the lone striker because of Ibisevic’s absence from the lineup.
Mainz: Karius – Donati, Balogun, Bungert, Bussmann – Frei, Baumgartlinger – Clemens, Malli, Onisiwo – Cordoba
Hertha: Jarstein – Weiser, Brooks, Lustenberger, Mittelstädt – Stark, Cigerci- Haraguchi, Darida, Baumjohann – Kalou
Hertha will come into this match devastated after losing in just 4 weeks everything they worked for so hard all season. It`s safe to assume that the players just want to get it over it and go on vacation. Qualifying directly to the Europa League group stages means nothing compared to what Hertha lost, so I`m not sure how much this game means to them.
I definitely don`t see Hertha bouncing back from this horrible run of form on the road, against a good team and in the last round. It`s not just the results that were dirt poor for them recently, the level of football was also largely disappointing, with some of the defeats being really ugly.
Mainz will be boosted by the good performance last round, they will want to end the season on a high at home and avoid having to play an Europa League playoff. Against a Hertha side which has zero form and morale, I can see Mainz being able to secure a positive result. My tip is Mainz to win with a 0,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Mainz – Hertha Berlin 2-0.
Pick: Mainz (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.82 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.56
Event date: 14 May
