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Malaga hosts a desperate Cordoba team in the 27th round of the Spanish La Liga.
Hosts are in desperate need to put wins together if they want to have any chance of catching the Top 6 and playing Europa League football this season. Malaga is 7th and unfortunately for them this year the 7th place will not go in Europe, because of Espanyol / Bilbao being in the Cup final. Malaga is coming after a disappointing 0-1 loss at Granada … they were coming after two wins vs. Getafe and Barcelona but played a really, really bad game at Granada … the loss was deserved and Granada could have won by 2 or 3 goals even. Javi Guerra is the only injury doubt for Malaga today.
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Cordoba suffered a heartbreaking loss last round … took the lead vs. Getafe in the 77th minute but lost with goals in the last three minutes of the game. It was the 7th consecutive loss and now the visitors are 7 points away from the first non-relegating zone. Cordoba is not playing that bad though … they can`t catch a break and are really unlucky, the game vs. Getafe is a good example of that. Six of their 7 successive losses came by a single goal, many with late goals. Bouzon and Lopez are unavailable for Cordoba.
I see great value in the bet on Malaga to win by 1 goal. Normally the hosts are big favorites at home where they are always strong, but they were horrible vs. Granada and meet a team that will be absolutely desperate for points. As previously said, 6 of the last 7 losses for Cordoba came by only 1 goal. Also, 8 of Malaga’s last 10 wins came by just 1 goal. I can see Cordoba staying in this game with a crowded defense but Malaga in the end will be too strong at home and find the winning goal. The bet is of course a bit of a long shot, but I think the value is great and it can well be a winning one … my tip will be Malaga to win by 1 goal (draw on the -1 european handicap market). Correct score prediction: Malaga – Granada 1-0.
Pick: -1 EH Draw (Malaga to win by 1 goal)
Odds: 3.50 @ Unibet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 15
Event date: 15 March
