Malaga – Elche

Malaga hosts Elche in the 35th round of the Spanish La Liga.

The battle for the last European spot in La Liga has been incredible lately … with Villarreal and Malaga playing horrible football, unable to win a game in months! Athletic Bilbao is between Villarreal and Malaga, but they are excluded from the conversation because they are qualified via the Cup final. Malaga has not won in any of the last 7 attempts but can still go within 4 points of Villarreal with a win today … and keep a small chance to overtake them in the final 3 rounds, especially since there is also the direct meeting remaining to be played. Malaga is coming after a 1-0 win at Celta Vigo and has a healthy squad for today … only Camacho is a doubt but even he should be fit to play.

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Elche won 3 of the last 4 games, a run that saw them rise to the 13th place in La Liga and basically avoid relegation … 7 points ahead with 6 rounds to go and plenty of teams between them and a red zone. A win today would see them stay in La Liga 100%, but I am sure they will be happy with a draw. Visitors are coming after an emphatic 4-0 win vs. Deportivo and are entering this clash with great morale. Jose Angel and Sergio Pelegrin are the only injury concerns for Elche.

You have to be really brave to take Malaga at odds 1.60 in the current situation … and it is more than normal that the odds are dropping on Elche. The visitors are the in form team and an organized, disciplined side like them is the worst possible opponent for the out of shape Malaga at the moment. Hosts will struggle to break Elche’s defensive wall and could easily be punished on the break. Elche has all the arguments to get a result and bottom line is that they are truly playing the better football now … only loss and only game without a clean sheet for them in the last 4 was vs. Atletico on Calderon and they won the other 3.

My tip is Elche +1 asian handicap … surely they can get at least a draw here, but even if Malaga finds some form, they are not exactly known for winning with large margins … so it would be a big surprise if they win by more than 1 goal. High stakes on this bet from my part. Correct score prediction: Malaga – Elche 1-1.

Pick: Elche (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.80 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 3 May