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Big match here in the 16th round of the Allsvenskan, as Malmo will take a huge option for the title with a win against 4th placed Kalmar. These two teams already met in the league this season and it was no more than days ago, with Kalmar holding for a 1-1 home draw.
There`s no question for anyone that Malmo is the dominant force in Swedish football at the moment. The hosts have won the league last year and have a much better team this year, most notably adding former Werder Bremen and WBA striker Markus Rosenberg, a much needed goalscoring option. Malmo has by far the best defense in Sweden but they struggle a bit offensively, this could also be seen in the Champions League tie against Ventspils, which Malmo barely won 1-0 aggregate – they were never in danger of conceding, but could not apply consistent pressure in offense. The hosts are having small issues with form right now, 3 draws in the last 5 games, including that less than impressive qualification over Ventspils.
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Kalmar is playing great football so far this season, just like Malmo they have a very good defense from which they build their game. Their last game was the 1-1 draw against today`s opponents and the team is looking pretty good right now. With Malmo struggling a little bit right now, Kalmar can realistically hope to make an impact on the road and get something from this game.
Malmo has had problems scoring and creating chances lately, Kalmar is not an offensive team for Swedish standards either, so I can see this finishing with under 2,5 goals. 4 of Malmo’s last 5 matches finished with less than 3 goals, while Kalmar has 3 under 2,5 matches from the last 5. The fact that the game is relatively evenly matched should also help in determining a low scoring game. An interesting fact is that weather reports indicate extreme heat at game time, something Swedish players are not really used to, so that should help lower the temp of the match, especially considering that Malmo might be just a bit tired after the crucial Champions League game they had midweek. Not lastly, I do not see anyone taking unnecessary risks, after all a draw would pretty much suit both teams.
I expect an evenly matched encounter with a rather low tempo of football, with much focus put on the tactical aspect of the game and on defense. My tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored, I`m surprised that we can find odds as high as evens on this bet. Prediction: Malmo – Kalmar 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 2.02 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.14
Event date: 26 July
