Man United – Leicester

Leicester City will pull off one of the biggest miracles in sports history and win the Premier League title with a victory at Old Trafford, but Manchester United is in big need of points and will put on their best effort in this one. Leicester will also have to play without Jamie Vardy for the second game in a row.

Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Norwich on Saturday, means that Man United’s chances to finish Top 4 are getting lower, but the hosts still have an honest shot to do it. United is 8 points behind Arsenal and 5 points behind rivals Man City, but they have 2 less games played than Arsenal and 1 less game played than City – who also has a very difficult game this round away at Southampton. Arsenal and Man City will also have to play each other until the end of the season. Doing some simple maths, fact is that Manchester United WILL finish Top 4 if they win all their remaining matches – unless Arsenal and Man City settle for a draw in the direct meeting, while winning all their other games.

On paper, this will be Leicester’s most difficult game in a while, but for a team with their style of play it might actually be easier than meeting teams who park the bus. Leicester did very well to win so many games in a row against teams that forced them to take the initiative and they are now 7 points in front of Tottenham with 3 rounds to go. The title seems won and it will be won with a win today, but if Leicester loses, they will really complicate things for themselves, as they face two very difficult matches in the last two rounds. The Foxes are on the back of a 4-0 win over Swansea, showing their potential when they play a team that does not put 10 men behind the ball.

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Team news & lineups:

Schweinsteiger, Januzaj, Shaw, Keane and possibly Jones will miss out for United. Leicester City will again have to do without Vardy, as he was given an extra game ban. James is also out.

Manchester United: De Gea – Fosu-Mensah, Smalling, Blind, Rojo – Fellaini, Schneiderlin – Mata, Rooney, Martial – Rashford

Leicester City: Schmeichel – Simpson, Morgan, Huth, Fuchs – Mahrez, Kante, Drinkwater, Albrighton – Ulloa, Okazaki

Manchester United is in good form with 4 consecutive wins and only 1 loss in the previous 9 games, but that doesn`t mean anything when you have to play a team like Leicester, who barely lost 3 times this season and does not want to re-open the fight for the title. Additionally, Manchester United is not playing particularly well, they pulled off close wins lately but the level of football was not impressive.

The most important argument for Leicester here is the fact that they love to play against teams like Man United. Leicester was very impressive in grinding out win after win against inferior opposition lately, but they are at their best when they can sit back, not being forced to dominate games. They love to relinquish possession, sit back and hit opponents with their deadly counterattacks. Leicester has been unstoppable when given space to exploit on the break.

I do think Van Gaal is clever enough to not play this game the way Leicester wants him to, but nevertheless he can`t park the bus at home and give the ball to the Foxes, especially as Man United must win the game to keep Top 4 hopes alive. I can see the hosts playing a moderately offensive game and that will still suit Leicester.

I am very happy to back Leiceser here, they have proven themselves this season against the big clubs and I can`t see them losing against a United side that is still shaky, despite the recent wins. I actually think Leicester will pull off the victory and win the title, but for more safety I will back the Foxes not to lose.

My tip is Leicester +0,5 handicap. Vardy’s absence will be a blow, even if Ulloa played excellent in his place, scoring 2 goals last round. Against United though, Vardy’s speed and finishing would have been very important, so that`s why I am investing 9 units on this bet instead of 10, which was my initial plan. Prediction: Manchester United – Leicester City 1-2.

Pick: Leicester +0,5
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.65
Event date: 1 May