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All Italian clash in the Roland Garros qualifying 3rd round, as Marco Trungelliti takes on the hero of the day, Andrea Arnaboldi – who played an absolute thriller, streched over 2 days, in the previous round.
Trungelliti won in straight sets against Westerhof and Bagnis, recording two clear wins – 7-5 6-2 and 6-1 6-3. His good performance in Paris is rather surprising, as his level of tennis and form were really poor coming into this tournament.
Arnaboldi spent a total of 4 hours and 30 minutes on the court in his historic 6-4 3-6 27-25 win against Herbert – an even more impressive feat considering the fact that Arnaboldi is a player known for lacking fighting spirit and for a tendency to give up on matches. He also had to endure a three setter against Denis Kudla in the first round, so obviously chances are he will not be at his best in this match.
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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Arnaboldi, who demolished Trungelliti last year in Mestre on clay – a blowout 6-1 6-0 victory. Arnaboldi is the better player here and he was in better form than Trungelliti coming into Roland Garros, but recent events bring in a totally different perspective.
While Trungelliti recorded a blitz win against Bagnis on Wednesday, Arnaboldi was adding up the hours in his match against Herbert and had to play 22 more games on Thursday as well. It remains to be seen if Arnaboldi can recover physically and mentally after that match, but obviously it is not likely. Trungelliti knows this and will try to move him around as much as possible. Looking at his good form and the tennis he played this week, he should be able to do just that.
I really doubt that a player with Arnaboldi’s history of throwing the towel can pull himself together to play at his top level for a 4th day in a row, not after that exhausting thriller with Herbert. For Trungelliti reaching the main draw would be one of the highlighs of his career, so look for him to give it his all on the court. My tip is Trungelliti to win, the circumstances could’nt be more favorable to Marco. Prediction: Marco Trungelliti – Andrea Arnaboldi 3-6 6-3 6-0.
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Pick: Trungelliti
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.46
Event date: 22 May
