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Marcos Baghdatis and Ivo Karlovic will square off in what should be a very interesting semifinal at Newport between two guys who are fine grass court players.
Baghdatis played some really great tennis this week, defeating Baker and Sela 2-0 in his two matches at Newport (he had a bye in the first round). The 6-2 7-5 win against Sela was pretty impressive, as the Israelian has been in good form on grass this year and played excellent tennis against Lacko and Ram before losing to Baghdatis. The Cypriot’s level in Newport is no surprise, as he has been pretty good throughout the grass court season, reaching the quarters at Halle and Nottingham, beating guys like Berdych or Querrey.
Karlovic didn`t have the best results on grass in the past weeks. He reached the semifinals at Hertogenbosch, but that was about it, as he lost in the second round at Halle and Wimbledon. For a guy with his serve, he could have done better on the green. Here in Newport Karlovic looked decent against Dancevic (except the first set, which he lost) and Chiudinelli, but Big Ivo is not quite playing his best tennis. He showed a lot of weaknesses despite not meeting solid opposition and he was close to going out in his first match against Dancevic (3-6 7-6 6-4).
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Baghdatis leads the Head 2 Head 3-1, but it could well be 4-0. Karlovic’s only win was via a Baghtatis retirement, when the Cypriot was leading 1-0 in sets. Additionally, Baghdatis lost just 1 out of 9 sets played against Karlovic! Marcos has always done well against the big Karlovic serve and he seems to have a serious matchup advantage over the Croatian. This will be the first meeting on grass, a surface that suits both guys perfectly.
Baghdatis is playing better tennis this week and a fair case can be made that he played better tennis throughout the entire grass court season. More importantly, he has the antidote for Karlovic’s big serve, as the Head 2 Head shows us. In these conditions, it`s hard to agree with the bookies, who rate Big Ivo as a small favorite in this match. He has always been outplayed by Baghdatis, finding no answer against him. What could he do different this time, especially with Marcos playing at a very high level and Karlovic a bit below his best?
The match will probably be close and you can never be sure with Karlovic on grass, with all the potential tiebreaks, but I think it`s fair to expect a win for Baghdatis today. His form and confidence, as well as his ability to read the Karlovic serve should help him in key moments and make a bet on his victory a winner.
As long as Baghdatis is priced above 1.80, I`m happy to back him with in this match, as he should really be the favorite here and not by just 1-2%. My tip is Baghdatis to win and I expect odds will drop. Prediction: Marcos Baghdatis – Ivo Karlovic 6-7 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Baghdatis
Odds: 1.99 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 16 July
