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One of the most talked about Grand Slam semifinal in years will see Maria Sharapova take on the emerging Canadia Eugenie Bouchard. One thing is for sure, this will be a hard hitting festival between two power players.
With most of the top seeds exiting Roland Garros early, Maria Sharapova became the player to watch in Paris and she is the overwhelming favorite to lift the trophy for the second time. Maria played pretty good tennis so far but there`s no doubt she still has her shortcomings, as it was clearly seen in her only matched against decent opposition: 3-6 6-4 6-0 with Stosur and 1-6 7-5 6-1 with Muguruza. The Russian is hitting a ton of winners but also making a fair number of unforced errors and seems unable to play a solid match from the beginning to the end.
Twenty year old Eugenie Bouchard is in a Grand slam semifinal for the second consecutive time, amazing result, and she played some really good tennis here in Paris. She got past Carla Suarez Navarro in a very tight quarterfinal (7-6 2-6 7-5, losing only her 2nd set at RG this year) but the Spaniard was really solid and I was impressed in how Bouchard handled herself to come out on top against a natural clay courter. Similar to Sharapova Eugenie is still hitting some unforced errors, but it`s only natural considering her attacking game and she seems able to sustain an error-free level for a little more time than Masha.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Sharapova leads the H2H 2-0, two easy wins last year including a 6-2 6-4 result in the Roland Garros 2nd round. However, Bouchard is a totally different animal this year. Matchup-wise these two are basically identical players, hard hitters, so the tactical aspect of the game won`t have a big impact. Sharapova has a slightly larger arsenal of angles but Bouchard’s serve is steadier. Masha also has the very important edge in experience, she`s a former winner here in Paris, but Bouchard’s semifinal at Roland Garros is very important and will help the Canadian to cope better with the pressure.
I`m really not sure if Sharapova will manage to reach the final, the bookies are giving her too much credit with these type of odds. She has been very inconsistent in the last two rounds and she got to the finish line mainly due to Stosur and Muguruza decreasing their level of play. Bouchard has her own flaws, maybe she doesn`t have Sharapova’s class yet, but she has been more consistent with her tennis in the last week and should at least be able to get a close result with her serve and power shots.
There are three potential tips here: the over 20,5 bet, the set handicap on Eugenie and the game handicap. Considering all the factors and the odds, my tip is Bouchard +4,5 game handicap. I refuse the set handicap because this could well go down on serve in 2 sets, and I`m scared of the over because I really don`t rule out Sharapova having a breakdown and losing big, Muguruza almost gave her a bagel last round. Pick the handicap on Eugenie. Prediction: Maria Sharapova – Eugenie Bouchard 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Bouchard (+4,5)
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 5 June
