Sharapova – Halep

The highly anticipated women’s final at Roland Garros will see former champion Maria Sharapova take on the emerging Romanian Simona Halep. I have analyzed this game since the Halep – Petkovic semifinal ended, with the certainty that a solid analysis will reveal the best option regarding what to bet on the final – so let`s see that this match gives us betting-wise.

Maria Sharapova entered Roland Garros on the back of a R16 exit in Rome (lost to Ivanovic) and a title run at Madrid (defeated today`s opponent, Halep) and did well to reach the last stage in Paris as well. However, I have to say that the Russian was not extremely impressive over the course of the tournament and had a lot of ups and downs especially in the last three rounds against Stosur, Muguruza and Bouchard. Maria has many unforced errors at times and was shaky on serve. She lost a set in each of those matches and was actually very close to losing the whole match against Muguruza and Bouchard. Her experience prevailed and she recovered with lopsided wins in the deciding sets, but the question is if she can afford the same inconsistency in the final.

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Halep never before reached a Grand Slam semifinal before Roland Garros, actually she didn`t even reach the quarters at a Slam prior to Australian Open this year. However, the improvement of the feisty Romanian in the last year was amazing and reaching a career high ranking of number 4, she was always expected to do damage here in Paris. Halep has arguably been the steadiest player over the course of the tournament, not losing a single set and playing great tennis. Her attributes include excellent movement, stamina, pace and a very good defensive game, which might work very well against the power hitter that is Sharapova. In Halep’s disadvantage comes the fact that she did not really face top class opposition on her road to the final, but she did defeat a dangerous Kuznetsova and an in form Petkovic in the last two rounds. Prior to Roland Garros she reached the Madrid final (lost to Sharapova) and retired in the 2nd round in Rome.

Sharapova leads the H2H 3-0 but the only relevant meeting was the one in Madrid one month ago, as it was the sole match between the two since Halep emerged and also the only meeting on clay. Sharapova won 1-6 6-2 6-3, it was a tight encounter but Maria’s flair and experience made the difference in the end.

As a romanian tennis fan I have to admit I never believed that Halep has what it takes to be a top 20 player, let alone top 5, and I never fancied her game (still don`t). However, Simona is playing really quality tennis, her level was higher than the one of Sharapova so far at Roland Garros and I believe she has the matchup advantage to win, as her good movement and defensive game will force Sharapova to hit another shot, and the Russian was pretty unforced error-prone so far this tournament. Maria is not at her best despite reaching the final and she will need to capitalize heavily on Halep`s poor second serve if she is to win this. Maria has the experience advantage, which is huge, but Halep beat a lot of top players lately and should be ready for this one.

If the Romanian does not crumble under pressure, she has over 50% chances to take home the trophy, especially giving that she played in the semifinals against a similar player to Sharapova, which will make her better prepared for the final. My tip is Halep to win. I wouldn`t call this a “sure bet”, but there`s great value in the odds and my analysis clearly suggests that the bet is worth a try with reasonably high stakes. Prediction: Maria Sharapova – Simona Halep 6-7 6-2 3-6.

Pick: Halep
Odds: 2.55 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.4
Event date: 7 June