Betdistrict.com
Maribor snatched a 1-1 draw in Nicosia last week, but is was a really undeserving result for them, as APOEL totally dominated the match, missed a lot of chances and had some dubious referees decisions against them, including a clear penalty in the last minute that was not given.
Maribor is not looking good this season. Despite leading the league with three wins in three draws, they are not playing impressive football, it`s just the poor quality of slovenian football that makes them look good. Their weaknesses were obvious so far in Europe, where they barely knocked out Malta`s Birkirkara (2-0 aggregate with huge chances missed by Birkirkara). Against APOEL, as I said, they were outplayed for the whole game but somehow managed to equalize and obtain a great result for the second leg. The slovenians have confidence ant they are also rested after not playing in the weekend, so these are things that work in their favor today. But if you look on their roster, they are just so poor, no quality whatsoever. Very few Maribor players would make the squad in a team like APOEL.
Maribor misses two important players, Mezga and Filipovic, so that will be a big blow for the hosts. They do have an advantage playing at home.
APOEL, former Champions League quarterfinalist a few years years back, is a better team overall than Maribor, there is no question about that. They have some top-class players and they also strengthened in the summer with the likes of Goncalves or Tiago Gomes (ex-Hercules and Blackpool), but they do appear to have some trouble gelling the team together in this early stage of the season. The cypriots appointed a new manager in the summer, so that is one of the reasons for the lack of cohesion. They did not start the league yet, and that is a disadvantage for them in this tie. The visitors don`t have any new selection problems.
After the way the first game was played, it`s hard too look past APOEL in this decider. They have their problems, but they are so much better than Maribor and they proved it last week. The slovenians don`t seem ready for european level at the moment. With another week of preparation after the first leg, the cypriots should look even better today, counterbalancing the fact that they play away. Maribor will play it safe hoping for a 0-0 draw, maybe a 1-0 win, but they should be punished at some point by the visitors and from then on APOEL will become the big favorite to advance. Can`t see the hosts keeping a clean sheet with their shaky defense and Nicosia`s strong individuals in attack. Big difference between this two teams, and Nicosia should qualify.
Pick: APOEL to qualify
Odds: 2.10 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.70
Event date: 6 August
