Maribor – Astana

NK Maribor (Slovenia) and FC Astana (Kazakhstan) square off in a tight Champions League second round qualifying tie.

Maribor really stepped it up in the last couple of seasons, qualifying in the Europa League knockout round two years ago and reaching the Champions League group stage last year – putting in some good performances as well, like drawing with Schalke (away) and Chelsea, Sporting (home). The hosts won the league by a margin of 9 points, but didn`t look so good ahead of this new season. The results in friendlies were really poor and they also lost the Slovenian Supercup at penalties against Koper, after 0-0 in regular time.

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Astana won the Kazakh league last season, but they are not looking like favorites to repeat that – with 20 rounds gone, the Champions are currently 3rd, 4th points away from the first place. The visitors have a squad composed mostly of domestic players, but there are some good imports to increase the overall value. Last year Astana defeated Hapoel Tel Aviv and AIK in the Europa League qualifying stages before losing 0-7 aggregate to Villarreal.

Maribor is the better team here, but they didn`t look good in pre-season and will meet an opponent that is at a superior fitness level due to being in the middle of the domestic league. I do expect Maribor to eventually edge it at home, but it should be tight. With this in mind, I reckon the best bet is Maribor to get a 1 goal win, so my tip is a draw on the -1 european handicap market. Small stakes, but it does look like the most likely outright for this Champions League qualifying clash. Prediction: Maribor – Astana 2-1.

Pick: Draw (-1 EH)
Odds: 3.70 @ Unibet
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 10.8
Event date: 14 July