Maribor – Sevilla

I`m not quite sure how Maribor managed to reach this stage of the Europa League, but luck surely had something to do with it. I watched Maribor many times this season and the team is dirt poor for this level. They reached the Champions League playoffs after an outrageous tie with APOEL Nicosia (2 draws), in which the Cypriots clearly were the better team and were robbed by the referees in both legs. Entering the Euro League group stages, Maribor lost the first two games vs. Rubin and Wigan with an aggregate score of 8-2 before springing a fluke upset in Belgium vs. Zulte Waregem 3-1. Maribor went on to qualify in the last 2 rounds after drawing with an unmotivated Rubin team (87 minute equalizer) and beating a totally out of form Wigan side 2-1. With 7 points Maribor was tied with 3rd placed Zulte but had the direct meetings and the goal difference.

Maribor is first in Slovenia but the league is poor and Maribor is not really dominating, already losing 5 times in 19 rounds – including 3 times in the last 6 rounds. The Slovenian league is currently in the winter break so Maribor did not play competitive football since beating Wigan in December. I saw them 2 weeks ago in a friendly in Turkey against Romanian side Vaslui and they were horrible in a 3-1 losing effort.

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Sevilla is apparently out of form at the moment and has not won a single game from the last six they played. On the other hand they did face pretty tough opposition and did not play too bad, and in the weekend got a 0-0 draw against Valencia in a match they heavily dominated (14-1 corners, 6-1 shots), so the visitors are not really in crisis and are improving. Sevilla’s president stated that his team wants to use this game to get back to winning ways and the coaching staff seemingly got the message: Sevilla called up its best players for this match and apparently will start with the first team, not resting more than 2-3 guys. The squad called-up looks great:

Sevilla squad: Beto, Javi Varas, Sergio Rico, Diogo, Coke, Pareja, Fazio, Carriço, Fernando Navarro, Alberto Moreno, Iborra, Cristóforo, Trochowski, Rakitic, Jairo, Vitolo, Cheryshev, Reyes, Marin, Gameiro, Bacca, Carlos Fernández.

My tip is Sevilla to win this match with ease. They are a high scoring team and they should be able to cover a 1 goal handicap. I rate Maribor as the weakest team in this stage of the competition with the players they have + their level of play and I think their chances to spring an upset are close to zero. Home advantage will help them and it’s a factor we have to consider, but it’s the only edge Maribor has and I don’t think it will be enough. Sevilla enters this match with massive hunger for a win, motivated and with the first team – while their form is on an uptrend. The fact they are playing competitive football in the last 3 months while Maribor is not should also help. The quality gap is very big and Maribor does not have too many weapons to try and even it out. Pick Sevilla to win with a 1,25 asian handicap. According to my analysis, correct score prediction could be something like Maribor – Sevilla 1-3.

Pick: Sevilla (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.34 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.38
Event date: 20 February