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One of the most evenly matched encounters in the 3rd round at the Miami Open will be the clash between Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon. Cilic is rated as a 1.65 odds favorite by the bookies.
Cilic is having a pretty good year so far, posting a 15-9 win / loss record, reaching the final at Marseille and also playing quarterfinals last month in Indian Wells. Marin had a very good campaign at the previous masters event, defeating Gasquet in the 3rd round before falling in 2 sets to David Goffin in the quarters. Here in Miami Cilic easily defeated Lajovic in the second round, 6-4 6-1. Good tennis lately from the Croatian, but he`s still not quite at his best level. Aside from the win against Gasquet, he doesn`t have any relevant victory this year.
Simon performed admirably this year at the Australian Open, losing in 5 sets to Djokovic in the 4th round, but hasn’t done much since, posting a 4-4 win / loss record after Melbourne. The Frenchman has not played his best tennis lately, but he did perform pretty well in his first round here in Miami, winning 7-5 6-1 against Juan Monaco.
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Cilic’s problem ahead of this match is his Head 2 Head record against Simon. The Croatian trails Simon 1-4 in direct meetings, with his only victory coming in his winning US Open campaign, when he was playing unbelievable tennis – and even then Cilic barely edged it in 5 close sets. It was also the last time the two players met. Cilic can draw confidence from the fact that all 5 Head 2 Head meetings went to a deciding set, so it’s not like he doesn`t know how to play Simon – but he clearly has some problems against him.
Cilic seems to be in better form right now, but he`s not playing lights out and he is yet to prove himself against the big boys, losing almost all matches against Top 40 opponents this year. He is not very trustworthy right now and Simon is a very smart player that can take advantage of these situations. With the Head 2 Head and matchup on his side, I believe Gilles has an honest chance to win this match.
Simon will try to force errors from Cilic, this is the way he has beaten him over the years and if the Croatian is not at his best, Simon will win. All in all, it seems like a 50-50 clash so the odds on the Frenchman represent value. My tip is Simon to win, but I`m keeping the stakes reasonable. Price is dropping on Gilles. Prediction: Marin Cilic – Gilles Simon 6-7 7-5 4-6.
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Pick: Simon
Odds: 2.31 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 7.86
Event date: 27 March
